{"id":2510,"date":"2021-12-07T20:42:30","date_gmt":"2021-12-07T12:42:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fanyuzhao.com\/?p=2510"},"modified":"2022-03-02T16:51:26","modified_gmt":"2022-03-02T08:51:26","slug":"%e4%b8%ad%e5%9b%bd%e5%9b%bd%e9%99%85%e9%87%91%e8%9e%8d%e5%8d%8f%e4%bc%9a%e5%b9%b4%e4%bc%9a","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fanyuzhao.com\/?p=2510","title":{"rendered":"\u4e2d\u56fd\u56fd\u9645\u91d1\u878d\u534f\u4f1a\u5e74\u4f1a"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">2022 \u4e16\u754c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e0e\u4e2d\u56fd &#8211; \u805a\u7126\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u6d4e\u91d1\u878d\u4f53\u7cfb\u7684\u672a\u6765<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-right\">&#8211; \u4e2d\u56fd\u94f6\u884c\u603b\u884c 2021.12.07 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u5218\u8fde\u8238 \uff08\u4e2d\u884c\u884c\u957f\uff09<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-dark-gray-color has-text-color\">\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u6d4e\u590d\u82cf\u4e0e\u4ea7\u4e1a\u94fe\u3002G20\u56fd\u5bb6\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5df2\u590d\u82cf\uff0c\u8d38\u6613\u6c34\u5e73\u8d85\u75ab\u60c5\u524d\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u5dee\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u8106\u5f31fragile\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u9700\u8981<strong>\u5168\u7403\u4ea7\u4e1a\u94fe\u7f51\u7edc\u5408\u4f5c\u6df1\u5316<\/strong>\u3002\u533a\u57df\u95f4\u591a\u8fb9\u8d38\u6613\u589e\u52a0 =&gt; \u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u5728\u5168\u7403\u4ea7\u4e1a\u94fe\u4e2d\u83b7\u5229\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4f46\u662f2008 crisis\u53cacovid-19\u4f7f\u5168\u7403\u5316\u811a\u6b65\u653e\u7f13\u3002\u5168\u7403Tariff\u4ee5\u53ca\u8d38\u6613\u4fdd\u62a4\u4f7f\u5f97<strong>\u5168\u7403\u5316\u5408\u4f5c\u51cf\u7f13<\/strong>\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Post-Covid\u5c55\u671b\uff1a<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5168\u7403\u4ea7\u4e1a\u94fe\u5408\u4f5c &lt;= \u5168\u7403\u5316\u8d8b\u52bf\u3002\u539f\u56e0\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol><li>\u5e94\u5bf9stagflation<\/li><li>\u5185\u5728\u52a8\u529b<\/li><li>\u751f\u4ea7\u8981\u7d20\u53ca\u6280\u672f\u8fdb\u6b65\u878d\u5408<\/li><li>\u6df1\u5316\u533a\u57df\u5408\u4f5c\uff08\u533a\u57df\u81ea\u8d38\u5408\u4f5c\uff09<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u4ecd\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u95ee\u9898<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol><li>Covid\u5e26\u6765\u7684Uncertainty i.e. Omicron<\/li><li>\u610f\u8bc6\u5f62\u6001\u5bf9\u6297 i.e. US \u5355\u8fb9\u4e3b\u4e49+\u4fdd\u62a4\u4e3b\u4e49 \uff08\u5982\u82af\u7247\u884c\u4e1a\uff09<\/li><li>\u4f20\u7edf\u7ecf\u8d38\u89c4\u5219\u65e0\u6cd5\u8ddf\u4e0aGreen Finance\u7684\u6b65\u4f10<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u5218\u660e\u5eb7 \uff08\u539f\u94f6\u76d1\u4f1a\u4e3b\u5e2d\uff09<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5e94\u5bf9\u75ab\u60c5\u4e2d\u7684\u56fd\u9645\u91d1\u878d<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u75ab\u60c5\u5f71\u54cd\uff1a<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol><li>Death &amp; Infection<\/li><li>Pandemic is repetitive i.e. \u9884\u8ba1\u672c\u5e74\u589e\u957f6%\u4e0d\u8db3\uff0c\u5b9e\u9645\u9884\u8ba15%<\/li><li>\u80a1\u5e02\\(downarrow\\)\uff0c\u6cb9\u4ef7\\(downarrow\\)\uff0c\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\\(downarrow\\)\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u5bfc\u81f4\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573aunfunctional\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u8fd0\u4f5c\u5931\u6548<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>To face the Covid<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol><li>CB conduct 1. QE; 2. Negative or zero interest rate.<\/li><li>Fed &amp; Treasury stimulate the economy by releasing extra liquidity\u6551\u5e02<\/li><li>Extra liquidity results in negative growth of Net worth of assets \u8d85\u989d\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u5bfc\u81f4\u8d44\u4ea7\u51c0\u503c\u51cf\u5c11<\/li><li>\u4f01\u4e1a\u878d\u8d44\u6210\u672c\u4e0b\u964d<\/li><li>2008 crisis\u540e CB+Gov\u5408\u4f5c\u7684\u6a21\u5f0f\u5f62\u6210<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u672a\u6765\u7684\u4e94\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul><li><strong>Problem 1: Future<\/strong>: Inflation becomes a problem in the future 10 years. Problems:<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul><li><strong>Problem 2: \u5168\u7403\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u91cd\u5851 <\/strong><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ol><li>Supply chain interruption\u5448\u73b0\u4e24\u79cd\u5f62\u5f0f\u30021. short-run \u9636\u6bb5\u6027\uff0c\u5982\uff1a\u96c6\u88c5\u7bb1\u7f3a\u5c11\u53ca\u53f8\u673a\u77ed\u7f3a\u30022. Structural &amp; Permanent \u6c38\u4e45\u6027\u53ca\u7ed3\u6784\u6027\uff0c\u5982\uff1a\u4e09\u661f\u3001LG\u3001\u5fae\u8f6f\u3001\u53f0\u79ef\u7535\u5927\u7b14\u8d44\u91d1\u91cd\u5851\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u3002\uff08\u6211\u56fdchips &amp; semi-conduct\u6709\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u91cd\u5851\u53ca\u5408\u4f5c\u9700\u6c42\uff09<\/li><li>\u8981\u89e3\u51b3\u6570\u636e\uff08\u5927\u6570\u636e\u65b9\u5411\uff09\u6e20\u9053\u95ee\u9898\u3002Balance\u4f01\u4e1a\u6570\u636e\u5171\u4eab+\u9690\u79c1\u4fdd\u62a4<\/li><li>\u56fd\u9645\u91d1\u878d\u8981\u8ddf\u4e0aSupply Chain Resilience\u7684\u6b65\u4f10\u3002\u7528 \u591a\u8282\u70b9\u591a\u4e2a\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe \u66ff\u4ee3 \u5355\u4e2a\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u7684\u6a21\u5f0f\u3002\u6253\u7834Just-in-time\u96f6\u5e93\u5b58\u4ee5\u964d\u4f4e\u50a8\u5b58\u6210\u672c\u7684\u7ecf\u8425\u6a21\u5f0f\uff08\u65e5\u672c\uff09<\/li><li>\u5404\u56fd\u9700\u8981\u6df1\u5316\u6539\u9769\uff1a\u6d77\u5173\u63a7\u5236\u53caTariff\u9650\u5236\u3002<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n<ul><li><strong>Problem 3: \u9ad8\u65b0\u79d1\u6280\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u53d8\u5316<\/strong><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ol><li>i.e. 5G\u5e26\u6765\u5de5\u4e1a+\u901a\u8baf\u4e92\u8054\u7684\u540c\u65f6 \u9700\u8981\u91d1\u878d\u652f\u63011. Cyber Security. 2. Risk control.<\/li><li><strong>Creative Construction.<\/strong> \u56fd\u9645\u5927\u578b\u5236\u836f\u516c\u53f8\u8fdb\u884c\u516c\u53f8\u62c6\u5206 1.\u907f\u514d\u81c3\u80bf; 2.Specialist &amp; focus on<\/li><li>\u540c\u65f6\u5bf9\u4e8e\u9ad8\u65b0+\u6570\u636e\u7684\u76d1\u7ba1\u9700\u8981\u8ddf\u4e0a\uff08\u5982\u9650\u5236ratio\u6807\u51c6\uff09<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n<ul><li><strong>Problem 4: \u7814\u7a76\u56fd\u9645\u91d1\u878d\u5982\u4f55\u670d\u52a1\u7eff\u8272\u53d1\u5c55<\/strong><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ol><li>Target\u76ee\u6807\uff1aNet of zero carbon, Needs trillion of dollors supports per year.<\/li><li>\u901a\u8fc7CCER\uff08\u78b3\u4ea4\u6613\u5e73\u53f0\uff09+\u78b3\u6355\u6349+\u78b3\u50a8\u5b58 \u6280\u672f\u534f\u52a9\u89e3\u51b3net zero \u7684\u76ee\u6807<\/li><li>\u56fd\u9645\u4ea4\u6d41\u534f\u4f5c<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n<ul><li><strong>Problem 5: \u56fd\u9645\u8d44\u4ea7: 1. \u91cd\u4f30revaluation; 2. \u91cd\u7ec4restructure; 3. \u91cd\u5206\u914dreallocation <\/strong><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ol><li>\u76ee\u524d\u6295\u8d44\u8003\u8651\u4e24\u4e2a\u7ef4\u5ea6\uff1a\u5b8f\u89c2+\u5fae\u89c2\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u73b0\u5728\u53ef\u80fd\u9700\u8981\u8003\u8651\u7b2c\u4e09\u4e2a\u70b9\uff1a\u5bf9Index Fallacy\u7684\u7ea0\u6b63\u3002\u7ea0\u6b63\u7ecf\u6d4e\u91d1\u878d\u6307\u6570\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u8c2c\u8bef\u3002<\/li><li>\u5468\u671f\u8f6c\u53d8 \uff08\u65b0\u7ecf\u6d4e v.s. \u65e7\u7ecf\u6d4e\uff09\u3001\u6c22\u80fd\u6e90\u7684 \u4ea7-&gt;\u5229-&gt;\u7528 \u5bfc\u81f4\u5bf9\u4f20\u7edf\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u7684\u51b2\u51fb<\/li><li>\u94f6\u884c\uff1a\u7528fin-tech+big data\u5e94\u5bf9\u65b0\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u51b2\u51fb<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u4e94\u4e2a\u65f6\u4ee3\u7684\u547c\u5524<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol><li>\u5f53\u4e0b &amp; \u4eca\u540e\u7684\u65f6\u673a+\u62b1\u8d1f<\/li><li>Face New tech<\/li><li>regulation &amp; cooperation<\/li><li>ESG + CSR<\/li><li>Human Development<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Joseph Stiglitz (2001 Nobel Prize winner)<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>About the Post-Pandemic<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul><li>Uncertainty<\/li><li>Global Cooperation (Prof. Stiglitz is upset about the global cooperation): unable to supply vaccine, cannot egt the low cost of production<\/li><li>Country&#8217;s Government conduct government purchases (about 25% U.S. GDP), But developing countries and emerging markets do not have ability of finance the economy recovery by &#8220;G&#8221;.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ol><li>SDR of CB: about to move money from CB to Treasury<\/li><li>Make funds recyclable<\/li><li>Problems of debts. We nned deep or restructure and cooperate between private and public sectors to solve the problems of extra debts.<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n<ul><li>Climate Risks<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ol><li>Weather uncertainty. Extreme weather.<\/li><li>Transformation to neclear energy.<\/li><li>Maket not works well. Asset price changes as well.<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n<ul><li>Systematic Consequence.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ol><li>Wrong valuation of financial sectors<\/li><li>Banks need to ensure not over-exposure to value risks<\/li><li>Gov needs to response by policy that not allow risks to be tranfered to private sectors. i.e. ensure all mortgages are green mortgage.<\/li><li>Financial Secors commisions to allocate.<\/li><li>Companies also need to allocate and disclose financial risks.<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n<ul><li>China &#8211; Debt Finance + Real Estate<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>The economy relies highly on real estate, so highly exposed to debts problems. Therefore, alternative modes can be chosen. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol><li>more equity finance than debt finance. However, equity finance needs more information, and then better regulation. Equity based finance is better to absorb risks.<\/li><li>Focus on more small business lending. Use small business loan to stimulate the economy.<\/li><li>More public investment. Private sectores are polluted (driven by tendency of profitability). Thus, public sectors need to work and help movement from rural to city and further make city better. (common prosperity).<\/li><li>A transformation to service dominant mode.<\/li><li>Public investment is the engine of economy.<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p>A country with rapid tranformation would be the winner.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u6731\u6c11 \uff08\u6e05\u534e\u5927\u5b66\u56fd\u5bb6\u91d1\u878d\u7814\u7a76\u9662\u9662\u957f\uff0c\u524dIMF\u526f\u603b\u88c1\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u526f\u884c\u957f\uff0c\u4e2d\u884c\u526f\u884c\u957f\uff09<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>2022\u901a\u80c0\u4e4b\u5251+\u592e\u884c\u7684\u6311\u6218<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>p.s. \u53c2\u8003Dalio\u7ecf\u6d4eweather\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e1. \u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f; 2. \u901a\u80c0\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul><li><strong>Facts:<\/strong><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ol><li>\u901a\u80c0\u5448\u73b0\u56fd\u9645\u56fd\u4e0e\u56fd\u4e4b\u95f4\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u56fd\u5185\u4ea7\u4e1a\u95f4\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u8d8b\u52bf\u3002<\/li><li>\u5168\u7403\uff1a\u5927\u5b97\u5546\u54c1\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0a\u5347 PPI\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u80fd\u6e90\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0a\u5347. PPI+CPI\u526a\u5200\u5dee\u5bfc\u81f4\u4f01\u4e1a\u5229\u6da6\u88ab\u4e25\u91cd\u538b\u7f29\u3002<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n<ul><li><strong>\u95ee\u9898\uff1a\u901a\u80c0\uff0c\u6682\u65f6\u6027 or \u6301\u4e45\u6027\uff1f<\/strong>&#8212; Ideas\uff1a\u6301\u4e45\u6027<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ol><li>Demand side: \u9700\u6c42\u6301\u7eed\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u7531\u4e8eFiscal &amp; Monetary Policy\u7684\u4f20\u9012\u6700\u7ec8\u4f20\u5411demand side<\/li><li>Supply side: cannot be stable coz covid continues + fluctuations of econ<\/li><li>\u5927\u5b97\u5546\u54c1\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0a\u5347 \uff08\u4e3b\u8981 \u6cb9+\u80fd\u6e90+\u7a00\u6709\u91d1\u5c5e\uff09\uff0c\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0a\u5347\u7684\u6765\u6e90\u4e3a\uff1a1. supply structure changes\uff1b2. Targets of carbon neturality<\/li><li>Labour Market\uff1a \u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u53c2\u4e0e\u7387\u4f4e low skill workers \u5bfc\u81f4unemployment\u3002\u4f46\u662fdemand\u9ad8\uff0ci.e. \u5361\u8f66\u53f8\u673a+\u6e2f\u53e3\u96c6\u88c5\u7bb1\u95ee\u9898\u3002 \u6700\u7ec8\u5bfc\u81f4low skill workers wage \u4e0a\u5347 =&gt; \u5bfc\u81f4 all wages \u4e0a\u5347\u3002<\/li><li>Real Estate Price \u4e0a\u5347\u3002<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p>\u7efc\u4e0a\u5bfc\u81f4persistent increase in inflation\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul><li>\u592e\u884c\u5bf9\u901a\u80c0\u7684\u653f\u7b56\uff1aFed \u63d0\u524d\u52a0\u606f\u3002\u4f46\u662fU.S. stock market \u7684tail risks \u63d0\u5347\u3002<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Summary: structural inflation becomes persistent because both supply and demand sides changes. Fed are less affected to the inflation.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul><li><strong>Future<\/strong><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>U.S. debts \u63d0\u5347 interest rate\u4e0b\u964d =&gt; achieve a balance\u3002 \u4f46\u662f\u5f53Fed\u8981\u63d0\u9ad8 interest rate\u6536\u7f29\u7ecf\u6d4e\u65f6\uff0cU.S. unable to pay back debts because of higher cost of interest payment. \u6700\u7ec8\u5bfc\u81f4 interest \u96be\u4ee5\u63d0\u5347\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u672a\u6765\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73b0 1. \u9ad8inflation\uff1b2. \u9ad8interest rate\uff1b3. \u9ad8debt\u3002\u4f46 \u4f4eeconomic growth\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group has-text-color is-layout-flow wp-block-group-is-layout-flow\" style=\"color:#808080\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container\">\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u4f59\u4f1f\u6587 \uff08\u9999\u6e2f\u91d1\u878d\u7ba1\u7406\u5c40\u603b\u88c1\uff09<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<ul><li>\u4e09\u4e2a\u98ce\u9669<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ol><li>Pandemic<\/li><li>High inflation risks\uff0cFed\u964d\u4f4eG\u589e\u901f<\/li><li>Emerging market growth\u964d\u4f4e\u3002\u8d44\u91d1\u5916\u6d41\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u6b64\u98ce\u9669\u53ef\u63a7<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n<ul><li>\u9999\u6e2f\u7684\u673a\u4f1a<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ol><li>\u80a1\u7968\u901a+\u503a\u5238\u901a+\u79bb\u5cb8\u4eba\u6c11\u5e01\uff08\u63a8\u52a8\u4eba\u6c11\u5e01\u56fd\u9645\u5316\uff09<\/li><li>\u91d1\u878d\u79d1\u6280<\/li><li>\u7eff\u8272\u91d1\u878d<\/li><\/ol>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group has-text-color is-layout-flow wp-block-group-is-layout-flow\" style=\"color:#808080\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container\">\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u6881\u65b0\u6865\uff08\u65b0\u52a0\u5761\u91d1\u878d\u7ba1\u7406\u5c40\u526f\u884c\u957f\uff09<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<ol><li>Finance need to tranform to meet the economy.<\/li><li>Singapore has robust banking system to meet the need<\/li><li>Deepen financial connection between Singapore &amp; China<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p>Green finance &#8211; help to achieve low carbon emission,<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol><li>Taxation helps reformatiom.<\/li><li>Help corporate achieve cheaper bonds &amp; notes<\/li><li>Work together to build green finance expertises<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p>Techonoly &amp; Innovation help shape the economy. Resillence of economy.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u674e\u626c \uff08\u56fd\u5bb6\u91d1\u878d\u4e0e\u53d1\u5c55\u5b9e\u9a8c\u5ba4\u7406\u4e8b\u957f\uff09<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8fd1\u671f\uff082021.12.6\uff09\u653f\u6cbb\u5c40\u4f1a\u8bae\u7ed3\u675f -&gt; \u7ecf\u6d4e\u5c40\u4f1a\u8bae<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul><li><strong>1. \u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u7387\u4e0b\u884c<\/strong><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ol><li>\u4ea7\u51fa\u7f3a\u53e3<\/li><li>\u6295\u8d44\u51cf\u5c11<\/li><li>\u6d88\u8d39\u51cf\u5c11 &#8211; \u5206\u914d\u95ee\u9898\uff1a\u6536\u5165\u4e00\u6b21\u5206\u914d\u5728 \u516c\u5171+\u5c45\u6c11 \u5b58\u5728\u4e0d\u5408\u7406\u3002\u9700\u8981\u589e\u52a0\u5c45\u6c11\u6536\u5165<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n<ul><li><strong>2. \u7269\u4ef7 \uff08\u901a\u80c0\uff09<\/strong><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4e2d\u56fdCPI PPI\u57282012\u5e74\u5df2\u5206\u9053\u626c\u9573\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4e24\u8005\u5bf9\u5e94\u7684\u4ea7\u4e1a\u4e0d\u540c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol><li>CPI\uff1a\u7535\u5546\uff0c\u4e92\u8054\u7f51\uff0c\u7269\u6d41\uff0cetc  \u6d88\u8d39\u54c1\u5e02\u573a\u662f\u6709\u6548\u5e02\u573a \u9ad8\u5ea6\u7ade\u4e89<\/li><li>PPI\uff1a\u4e0a\u6e38\u5448\u73b0\u5be1\u5934\u5784\u65ad\u7684\u8d8b\u52bf<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p>CPI &amp; PPI \u65e0\u76f4\u63a5\u4f20\u5bfc\u673a\u5236\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4e24\u5e02\u573a\u5206\u79bb\u3002Friedman words &#8220;inflation is everywhere a monetary phenomenon&#8221; \u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e0d\u9002\u7528\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4e24\u5e02\u573a\u5206\u79bb\uff0c\u4e14\u5e02\u573a\u4e0d\u662f\u6709\u6548\u5e02\u573a\uff08\u4e0d\u7ade\u4e89\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul><li><strong>3. \u5bf9\u5916\u90e8\u95e8<\/strong><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>\u51c0\u51fa\u53e3\u5927\u5e45\u652f\u6491GDP\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u8fdc\u671f\u672a\u6765 \u5fc5\u987b\u8981\u63d0\u632f \u5185\u5faa\u73af &#8211; \u53cc\u5faa\u73af\u673a\u5236\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul><li><strong>4. \u5c31\u4e1a<\/strong><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5c31\u4e1a\u51fa\u73b0\u7ed3\u6784\u6027\u95ee\u9898 Unemployment\u591a\u5b58\u5728\u4e8e20-25\u5c81\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u4e2d\u3002\u95ee\u9898\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol><li> \u521b\u4e1a\u5bf9\u5c31\u4e1a\u7684\u8fb9\u9645\u5e26\u52a8\u80fd\u529b\u3002i.e. 2015\u5e74\u4e00\u4e2a\u5e02\u573a\u4e3b\u4f53\u521b\u90201.9\u4e2a\u4eba\u5c31\u4e1a\uff0c\u4f46\u662f2020\u5e74\u4ec50.5\u4e2a\u3002\uff08\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u6709measurement error2015\u5e74\u7edf\u8ba1\u6570\u636e\u771f\u5b9e\u6027\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u82e5\u65e0\uff0c\u5219\uff09\u8bf4\u660e\u8fb9\u9645\u521b\u9020\u5c31\u4e1a\u80fd\u529b\u5dee\u3002\u4e14\u9700\u8981\u6570\u636e\u8003\u91cf\u5e26\u52a8\u7684\u662f\u4f55\u79cd\u5c31\u4e1a\uff08\u5730\u644aor\u4f01\u4e1a\uff09\u3002<\/li><li>\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u5e02\u573a\u9762\u4e34\u591a\u91cd\u5931\u8861+\u538b\u529b<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n<ul><li><strong>5. \u4e2d\u56fd\u503a\u52a1+\u6760\u6746\u7387<\/strong><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ol><li>Firms: \u4f01\u4e1a\u53bb\u6760\u6746 =&gt; \u5bfc\u81f4\u95ee\u9898\uff1a\u4f01\u4e1a\u4e0d\u501f\u94b1+\u4e0d\u7ecf\u8425\u3002<strong>\u751f\u4ea7\u610f\u613f\u4e0b\u964d<\/strong>\u3002\u77db\u76fe\u70b9\uff1a\u6760\u6746\u7387\u5927=&gt;\u98ce\u9669\u5927\uff1b\u6760\u6746\u7387\u5c0f=&gt;\u751f\u4ea7\u610f\u613f\u5c0f<\/li><li>Households: \u4e0d\u613f\u610f\u901a\u8fc7borrowing\u589e\u52a0\u6d88\u8d39\u3002<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Summary\uff1a\u4ec5\u8c03\u6574\u8d44\u4ea7\u8d1f\u503a\u8868\u8ba9\u5176\u597d\u770b\uff08low risk\uff09\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u540c\u65f6\u964d\u4f4e\u4e86\u201c\u610f\u613f\u201d\u5e26\u6765\u4e86\u707e\u96be\u6027\u540e\u679c\uff01<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Public\uff1a\u8d22\u653f\u653f\u7b56\u6001\u5ea6\u6d88\u6781\uff0c\u5730\u65b9\u6760\u6746\u7387+\u589e\u957f\u7387\u540c\u65f6\u4e0b\u964d\u3002 \u5c3d\u7ba1\u5e02\u573a\u8bf4\u201c\u7d27\u4fe1\u7528\uff0c\u6b3e\u8d27\u5e01\u201d\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u53cd\u6620\u5230\u7ec8\u7aef\u751f\u4ea7\u8005or\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u6700\u7ec8\u4ecd\u7136\u662f\u65e0\u652f\u6301\u6548\u679c\uff08money \u4ecd\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u4f53\u7cfb\u4e2d\u6d41\u8f6c\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u6ca1\u6709\u4f18\u8d28\u8d44\u4ea7\u6295\u8d44\u53ca\u653e\u8d37\uff09\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\u4ece\u7ed3\u679c\u8003\u8651\u662f\u7d27\u7f29\u7684\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul><li><strong>6. \u94f6\u884c\u8981\u627e\u7684\u9879\u76ee\uff0c\u8d44\u91d1\u51fa\u53e3\uff1a<\/strong><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5df2\u4ece\u4e4b\u524d \u5927\u4f01\u4e1a+\u623f\u5730\u4ea7 \u7684\u6a21\u5f0f\u8f6c\u5411 \u5c0f\u4f01\u4e1a+\u5c0f\u5fae\u4f01\u4e1a \u7684\u6a21\u5f0f\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u6b64\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u4f18\u8d28\u8d44\u4ea7\u4e5f\u5373\u5c06\u8017\u5c3d\u3002=&gt; \u8981\u5f00\u8f9f\u65b0\u7684\u8def\u5f84 \u53bb\u5b9e\u73b0 <strong>\u91d1\u878d\u670d\u52a1\u5b9e\u4f53\u7ecf\u6d4e<\/strong>\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4f46\u662f\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5c0f\u4f01\u4e1a\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u501f\u94b1\u878d\u8d44\u7684 \u8d22\u52a1\u6210\u672c\u9ad8=&gt; \u5b9e\u4f53\u90e8\u95e8less profitable\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5bf9\u5c0f\u4f01\u4e1a\u653e\u8d37\u7684\u5229\u7387\u8fc7\u9ad8\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul><li><strong>7. \u6d41\u901a\u6210\u672c\u9ad8<\/strong><\/li><li><strong>8. \u5168\u8981\u7d20\u751f\u4ea7\u7387\u6c34\u5e73\u6709\u5f85\u63d0\u9ad8<\/strong><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul><li><strong>\u7efc\u4e0a\u5f97\u5230\u7ed3\u8bba\uff1a<\/strong><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ol><li>\u7531\u4e8e\u4e4b\u524d\u201c\u5b9e\u9645\u201dmonetary policy\u7d27\uff0c=&gt; \u53ef\u4ee5\u5c06\u5176\u5b9e\u9645\u5bbd\u677e\uff0c\u523a\u6fc0\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55 =&gt; \u7a7a\u95f4\u5927<\/li><li>11.22\u53d1\u6587\u5e2e\u52a9\u5c0f\u4f01\u4e1a\uff0c\u8bf4\u660e\u6b64\u524d\u6ca1\u6709\u505a\u597d\u3002\u672a\u6765\u652f\u6301\u5c0f\u4f01\u4e1a\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u7a7a\u95f4\u5927\u3002\u539f\u56e0\uff1a Adv:1. \u5c0f\u4f01\u4e1a\u670d\u52a1\u5927\u4f01\u4e1a\uff1b2.\u5c0f\u4f01\u4e1a\u5e2e\u52a9\u5c31\u4e1a\u3002Disadv\uff1a\u7f3a\u5c11\u4f18\u8d28\u5c0f\u4f01\u4e1a\uff08\u4e0d\u80fd\u591a\u4e3a\u4ec5\u5e26\u67650.5\u4e2a\u5c31\u4e1a\u7684\u4f01\u4e1a\uff09\u3002<\/li><li>\u5f53\u524d\u51c6\u5907\u91d1\u7387\u8fc7\u9ad8 8.4%\uff0c\u4e16\u754c\u4ed6\u56fd\u591a\u4e3a0%\u51c6\u5907\u91d1\u65f6\u4ee3\u53ca\u8d8b\u52bf =&gt; \u7a7a\u95f4\u5927<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Eric Maskin \uff082007 Nobel Prize winner\uff09<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Mechanism Design<\/strong>: start with the outcomes, then work backward to find what mechanism can create that outcomes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>E.G. Seperate a cake to two kids. Aims to make those kids think they get same size. Ideal way to do so is halve the cake. However, kids may not consider sizes are same. We the mechanism design does is 1. as one kid to cut, and then 2. ask the other kid to choose a piece.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Two Realistic Problems can be solved by mechansim design.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul><li>1<strong>. Supply Chain Disruption: <\/strong>Economy is complex that there are goods and inputs, and producers get multi-sources.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Problems: producer does not seek multi-sources, coz they would prefer protect itself &amp; its downstream by using single source supply chain. =&gt; supply side market is inefficient.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Solve: Government conduct i.e. 1. government subsidies to achieve multi-sources; 2. government encourage producers through other ways.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>By government is the mechanism<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul><li>Climate changes: Human emission gas into atmosphere. A firm that uses coal to generate electicity has no incentives to switch to clean energy, coz 1. high cost of tranformation; 2. CO2 has less effects on that certain firm.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Solution:<\/strong> conduct carbon tax. 1. reduce carbon uses; 2. high cost of coal encourage firms to switch to clean power.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Carbon Tax is the mechanism<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul><li>Chinese Government did good:<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ol><li>carbon trade system (,which is similar to carbon tax). Also, what banks can do higher rate for high carbon emission firms (my simple idea).<\/li><li>ban Cryptocurrency (\u52a0\u5bc6\u8d27\u5e01). Cryptocurrency would reduce the effects of monetary policy, coz people would instead use Cryptocurrency.<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u9646\u78ca \uff08\u56fd\u5bb6\u5916\u6c47\u7ba1\u7406\u5c40\u526f\u5c40\u957f\uff09<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>PPI \u4e0a\u6da8\u6765\u81ea supply shocks\uff0c\u4e0a\u6e38\u5229\u6da6\u4e0a\u5347\uff0cCPI\u4e0a\u6da8\u6765\u81eademand shocks\uff0c\u4e0b\u6e38\u5229\u6da6\u4e0b\u964d\uff08\u5229\u6da6\u88ab\u4e0a\u6e38\u6536\u5272\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u9ad8\u8d28\u91cf\u53d1\u5c55<\/strong>\uff1a \u5de5\u5177+\u52a8\u529b<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5de5\u5177\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol><li>\u9700\u6c42\u4fa7\uff1a\u5b8f\u89c2\u8c03\u63a7\u9700\u8981continuous &amp; persistent &amp; transparent<\/li><li>\u4f9b\u7ed9\u4fa7\uff1a\u589e\u5f3acompetitivity\uff0c\u7ade\u4e89\u6027\u7531technology\u5e26\u6765\u3002<\/li><li>\u7ed3\u6784\uff1a\u4f18\u5316\u5206\u914d\uff08\u89c1\u674e\u626c\uff09\u3002<\/li><li>Green Finance\u3002<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p>\u52a8\u529b\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol><li>\u6539\u9769\u521b\u65b0 &#8211; \u7075\u6d3b\u6709\u6548\u7684fiscal policy<\/li><li>\u53d1\u5c55\u6e90\u6cc9\u6fc0\u52b1<\/li><li>Focus on also the liquidity risk (, which exceeds the credit risks already)<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Jeffrey Sachs<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>In the long-term future, there is a fundamental changes of the realtionship between China and U.S.. Need strengthen the cooperation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol><li>At the end of North Atlantic dominant, Asia takes doninant instead. Geographic driven by economic divergence,<\/li><li>Environmental Crisis &#8211; Fragile ecosystem<\/li><li>Demographic changes. Massive urbanisation.<\/li><li>Common prospertiy &#8211; demand for social inclusion.<\/li><li>Smart machines and digital socity<\/li><li>Wealth and well-being. How to shift the focus from wealth to well-being.<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p>All countries, governments need to consider the global environment regulation goal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Smart chiens and technology declines labour demands =&gt; reallocation of wealth (conflicts exist that the wealthy people rejects to pay higher tax)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>2022 \u4e16\u754c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e0e\u4e2d\u56fd &#8211; \u805a\u7126\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u6d4e\u91d1\u878d\u4f53\u7cfb\u7684\u672a\u6765 &#8211; \u4e2d\u56fd\u94f6\u884c\u603b\u884c 2021.12.07 \u5218\u8fde\u8238 \uff08\u4e2d\u884c\u884c\u957f\uff09 \u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u6d4e\u590d\u82cf\u4e0e\u4ea7\u4e1a\u94fe\u3002G20\u56fd\u5bb6\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5df2\u590d\u82cf\uff0c\u8d38\u6613\u6c34\u5e73\u8d85\u75ab\u60c5\u524d\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u5dee\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u8106\u5f31fragile\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u9700\u8981\u5168\u7403\u4ea7\u4e1a\u94fe\u7f51\u7edc\u5408\u4f5c\u6df1\u5316\u3002\u533a\u57df\u95f4\u591a\u8fb9\u8d38\u6613\u589e\u52a0 =&gt; \u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u5728\u5168\u7403\u4ea7\u4e1a\u94fe\u4e2d\u83b7\u5229\u3002 \u4f46\u662f2008 crisis\u53cacovid-19\u4f7f\u5168\u7403\u5316\u811a\u6b65\u653e\u7f13\u3002\u5168\u7403Tariff\u4ee5\u53ca\u8d38\u6613\u4fdd\u62a4\u4f7f\u5f97\u5168\u7403\u5316\u5408\u4f5c\u51cf\u7f13\u3002 Post-Covid\u5c55\u671b\uff1a \u5168\u7403\u4ea7\u4e1a\u94fe\u5408\u4f5c &lt;= \u5168\u7403\u5316\u8d8b\u52bf\u3002\u539f\u56e0\uff1a \u5e94\u5bf9stagflation \u5185\u5728\u52a8\u529b \u751f\u4ea7\u8981\u7d20\u53ca\u6280\u672f\u8fdb\u6b65\u878d\u5408 \u6df1\u5316\u533a\u57df\u5408\u4f5c\uff08\u533a\u57df\u81ea\u8d38\u5408\u4f5c\uff09 \u4ecd\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u95ee\u9898 Covid\u5e26\u6765\u7684Uncertainty i.e. Omicron \u610f\u8bc6\u5f62\u6001\u5bf9\u6297 i.e. US \u5355\u8fb9\u4e3b\u4e49+\u4fdd\u62a4\u4e3b\u4e49 \uff08\u5982\u82af\u7247\u884c\u4e1a\uff09 \u4f20\u7edf\u7ecf\u8d38\u89c4\u5219\u65e0\u6cd5\u8ddf\u4e0aGreen Finance\u7684\u6b65\u4f10 \u5218\u660e\u5eb7 \uff08\u539f\u94f6\u76d1\u4f1a\u4e3b\u5e2d\uff09 \u5e94\u5bf9\u75ab\u60c5\u4e2d\u7684\u56fd\u9645\u91d1\u878d \u75ab\u60c5\u5f71\u54cd\uff1a Death &amp; Infection Pandemic is repetitive i.e. \u9884\u8ba1\u672c\u5e74\u589e\u957f6%\u4e0d\u8db3\uff0c\u5b9e\u9645\u9884\u8ba15% \u80a1\u5e02\\(downarrow\\)\uff0c\u6cb9\u4ef7\\(downarrow\\)\uff0c\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\\(downarrow\\)\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u5bfc\u81f4\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573aunfunctional\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u8fd0\u4f5c\u5931\u6548 To face the Covid CB conduct 1. QE; 2. &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/fanyuzhao.com\/?p=2510\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">\u4e2d\u56fd\u56fd\u9645\u91d1\u878d\u534f\u4f1a\u5e74\u4f1a<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fanyuzhao.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2510"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fanyuzhao.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fanyuzhao.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fanyuzhao.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fanyuzhao.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2510"}],"version-history":[{"count":108,"href":"https:\/\/fanyuzhao.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2510\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2666,"href":"https:\/\/fanyuzhao.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2510\/revisions\/2666"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fanyuzhao.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2510"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fanyuzhao.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2510"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fanyuzhao.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2510"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}