{"id":2623,"date":"2021-12-08T15:57:44","date_gmt":"2021-12-08T07:57:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fanyuzhao.com\/?p=2623"},"modified":"2022-08-28T22:47:08","modified_gmt":"2022-08-28T14:47:08","slug":"%e8%bf%91%e6%9c%9f%e7%bb%8f%e6%b5%8e%e6%83%85%e5%86%b5%ef%bc%882021%e6%80%bb%e7%bb%93%ef%bc%89","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fanyuzhao.com\/?p=2623","title":{"rendered":"\u8fd1\u671f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u60c5\u51b5\uff082021\u603b\u7ed3\uff09"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u56fd\u9645\u95ee\u9898\uff1a<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<ul><li><strong>Problem 1:\u75ab\u60c5\u5e26\u6765\u7684uncertainty<\/strong><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>\u80a1\u5e02+\u6cb9\u4ef7\\(\\downarrow\\)\u5bfc\u81f4\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\\(\\downarrow\\)\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u5bfc\u81f4\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u5931\u6548\uff01<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Solution\uff1a\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u8d22\u653f\u653f\u7b56\u9700\u8981\u652f\u6301 \uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>1. Monetary Policy\u8003\u8651\u964d\u51c6\uff08\u56fd\u5185\u52a0\u6743\u7ea6\u4e3a8.4%\uff0c\u4f46\u4e16\u754c\u8d70\u54110\u51c6\u65f6\u4ee3\uff09\uff1b<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>2.  \u8d22\u653f\u653f\u7b56\u7a7a\u95f4\u5de8\u5927 \uff08\u6211\u56fd\u57fa\u5efa\u6c34\u5e73\u4ec5\u8fbe\u53d1\u8fbe\u56fd\u5bb630%\u6c34\u5e73\uff09\u3002CB+Gov\u5408\u4f5c\u7684\u6a21\u5f0f\uff08\u4e2d\u56fd\u5df2\u65e0\u6b64\u95ee\u9898\uff09\u3002P.S. \u8003\u8651extra liquid\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u8d44\u4ea7\u51c0\u503c\u51cf\u5c11\u95ee\u9898<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>3. Fin-tech + big data\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u8003\u8651 Index Fallacy<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>4. structure\u8f6c\u5411more equity finance \u56e0\u4e3a\u6b64\u7ed3\u6784absorb more risks\u3002\u540c\u65f6\u907f\u514ddebt\u8f6c\u79fb\u81f3private sectors\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul><li><strong>Problem 2: Hyper-inflation<\/strong><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6301\u7eed\u6027\u901a\u80c0\u5f62\u6210\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>1.\u4f9b\u7ed9\u4fa7\uff1a low skill workers\u77ed\u7f3a\uff08\u8054\u7cfb\u4ea7\u4e1a\u94fe\uff09=&gt; low skill wages \\(\\uparrow\\) =&gt; all wages \\(\\uparrow\\).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>2. \u9700\u6c42\u4fa7\uff1a\u56fd\u9645\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u653e\u6c34 \u5bfc\u81f4\u6301\u7eed\u9ad8\u9700\u6c42<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u95ee\u9898\uff1a\u9762\u5bf9\u901a\u80c0\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u52a0\u606f\u5e94\u5bf9\u3002\u4f46\u662fdebts\u91cf\u4e0a\u9650\u5df2\u8fbe\u5230\uff0c\u52a0\u606f&lt;=&gt;high cost of pay back debt\u3002Fed\u7834\u4ea7\u98ce\u9669<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul><li><strong>Problem 3: \u56fd\u9645\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u95ee\u9898<\/strong><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5448\u73b0\u4e24\u79cd\u5f62\u5f0f: 1.\u7ed3\u6784\u6027\uff08\u5982US\u5361\u8f66\u53f8\u673a\uff09\uff0c2.\u6c38\u4e45\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Solution\uff1a\u9700\u8981\u8fdb\u884c\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u91cd\u5851\uff1a\u591a\u94fe\u591a\u8282\u70b9 \u4ee3\u66ff \u5355\u94fe\u7ed3\u6784\u3002<strong>\u5176\u4e2d\u7ed3\u6784\u6027\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u95ee\u9898\u540c\u65f6\u5f15\u53d1\u901a\u80c0<\/strong>\u3002\u8003\u8651mechanism design: Government is the key mechanism design<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul><li><strong>Problem 4: \u9ad8\u79d1\u6280+Green<\/strong><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>\u673a\u4f1a\uff1a\u79d1\u6280\u8fdb\u6b655G+\u901a\u8baf\u4e92\u8054\u5e26\u6765\u5de8\u5927\u6548\u7387\u63d0\u5347\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6311\u6218\uff1a1. cyber securitiy + risk control; 2. \u4f01\u4e1a\u62c6\u5206 \u907f\u514d\u81c3\u80bf specialist; 3. \u78b3\u4ea4\u6613\u5236\u5ea6 &lt;- mechanism design\u53bb\u9650\u5236+\u6fc0\u52b1\u4f01\u4e1a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u4e2d\u56fd\u95ee\u9898<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<ul><li>1\uff1a\u4e2d\u56fd\u589e\u957f\u7387\u4e0b\u884c\uff1aC+I \u4e0b\u884c\u3002\u4ec5\u9760Net Export\u652f\u6491\u3002\u9700\u8981\u5c3d\u5feb\u8fbe\u6210 \u53cc\u5faa\u73af<\/li><li>2\uff1aCPI PPI\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u4e24\u8005\u65e0\u76f4\u63a5\u5173\u7cfb\u3002CPI\u4e0b\u6e38\u6d88\u8d39\u54c1\uff08\u7535\u5546\u7269\u6d41\u7269\u8054\u7f51\uff09\u4e14\u5e02\u573a\u7ade\u4e89\uff0cPPI\u4e0b\u6e383\uff1a\u539f\u6750\u6599\uff0c\u4e14\u5e02\u573a\u5784\u65ad\u3002 \u6240\u4ee5\u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\u65e0\u660e\u663e\u901a\u80c0\u538b\u529b\uff0c\u4e14\u5728\u4e2d\u56fdinflation is not everywhere a monetary phenomenon.<\/li><li>3\uff1a\u5c31\u4e1a\uff1a\u5de8\u5927\u95ee\u9898\uff0120-25\u5c81\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u9ad8\u3002\u5e02\u573a\u4e3b\u4f53\u521b\u9020\u5c31\u4e1a\u5c97\u4f4d\u5c11 \u4e14 \u7edf\u8ba1\u6570\u636e\u5b58\u5728\u95ee\u9898\uff08\u674e\u626c\uff09\u3002<\/li><li>4\uff1a\u4e2d\u56fd\u503a\u52a1+\u6760\u6746\u7387\u3002\u4e4b\u524d\u53bb\u6760\u6746\u5bfc\u81f4 1. \u4f01\u4e1a \u4e0d\u501f\u94b1+\u4e0d\u7ecf\u8425 =>\u751f\u4ea7\u610f\u613f\u5dee\uff08\u82e5\u501f\u94b1\u5219 \u9ad8\u6760\u6746=>\u9ad8\u98ce\u9669=>\u8d22\u52a1\u538b\u529b\u5927 \u65e0\u6cd5\u507f\u8fd8\uff09\u30022. low borrowings and low consumption<\/li><li>5\uff1a\u94f6\u884c\u7f3a\u5c11\u8d44\u91d1\u51fa\u53e3 \u6ca1\u6709\u4f18\u8d28\u8d44\u4ea7\uff08\u6b64\u524d\u9694\u591c\u5e02\u573a\u8d44\u91d1\u91cf\u5de8\u5927 \u5728\u91d1\u878d\u4f53\u7cfb\u7a7a\u8f6c\uff09<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>\u89e3\u51b3\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol><li>\u652f\u6301\u5c0f\u4f01\u4e1a+\u4f18\u8d28\u5c0f\u4f01\u4e1a \uff08\u9ad8\u8d28\u91cf\u53d1\u5c55\uff1a1.\u80fd\u786e\u5b9e\u63d0\u9ad8\u5c31\u4e1a+\u80fd\u5438\u7eb3\u8d44\u91d1 \u503c\u5f97\u6295\u8d44\uff09<\/li><li>\u8bf4\u662f\uff08\u201c\u7d27\u4fe1\u7528 \u5bbd\u8d27\u5e01\u201d\uff09\uff0c\u5b9e\u9645\u5bf9\u4f01\u4e1a\u548c\u4e2a\u4eba\uff08\u7ec8\u7aef\uff09\u6765\u8bf4\u662f \u7d27\u7f29\u7684\u8d27\u5e01\u8d22\u653f\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u4e3a\u6b64\uff1a\u8d27\u5e01\u8d22\u653f\u653f\u7b56\u7a7a\u95f4\u5de8\u5927<\/li><li>\u964d\u51c6\u7a7a\u95f4\u5de8\u5927<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p>\u53c2\u8003\uff1a\u4e2d\u56fd\u56fd\u9645\u91d1\u878d\u5b66\u4f1a\u5e74\u4f1a<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u56fd\u9645\u95ee\u9898\uff1a Problem 1:\u75ab\u60c5\u5e26\u6765\u7684uncertainty \u80a1\u5e02+\u6cb9\u4ef7\\(\\downarrow\\)\u5bfc\u81f4\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\\(\\downarrow\\)\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u5bfc\u81f4\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u5931\u6548\uff01 Solution\uff1a\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u8d22\u653f\u653f\u7b56\u9700\u8981\u652f\u6301 \uff1a 1. Monetary Policy\u8003\u8651\u964d\u51c6\uff08\u56fd\u5185\u52a0\u6743\u7ea6\u4e3a8.4%\uff0c\u4f46\u4e16\u754c\u8d70\u54110\u51c6\u65f6\u4ee3\uff09\uff1b 2. \u8d22\u653f\u653f\u7b56\u7a7a\u95f4\u5de8\u5927 \uff08\u6211\u56fd\u57fa\u5efa\u6c34\u5e73\u4ec5\u8fbe\u53d1\u8fbe\u56fd\u5bb630%\u6c34\u5e73\uff09\u3002CB+Gov\u5408\u4f5c\u7684\u6a21\u5f0f\uff08\u4e2d\u56fd\u5df2\u65e0\u6b64\u95ee\u9898\uff09\u3002P.S. \u8003\u8651extra liquid\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u8d44\u4ea7\u51c0\u503c\u51cf\u5c11\u95ee\u9898 3. Fin-tech + big data\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u8003\u8651 Index Fallacy 4. structure\u8f6c\u5411more equity finance \u56e0\u4e3a\u6b64\u7ed3\u6784absorb more risks\u3002\u540c\u65f6\u907f\u514ddebt\u8f6c\u79fb\u81f3private sectors\u3002 Problem 2: Hyper-inflation \u6301\u7eed\u6027\u901a\u80c0\u5f62\u6210\uff1a 1.\u4f9b\u7ed9\u4fa7\uff1a low skill workers\u77ed\u7f3a\uff08\u8054\u7cfb\u4ea7\u4e1a\u94fe\uff09=&gt; low skill wages \\(\\uparrow\\) =&gt; all wages \\(\\uparrow\\). 2. \u9700\u6c42\u4fa7\uff1a\u56fd\u9645\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u653e\u6c34 \u5bfc\u81f4\u6301\u7eed\u9ad8\u9700\u6c42 \u95ee\u9898\uff1a\u9762\u5bf9\u901a\u80c0\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u52a0\u606f\u5e94\u5bf9\u3002\u4f46\u662fdebts\u91cf\u4e0a\u9650\u5df2\u8fbe\u5230\uff0c\u52a0\u606f&lt;=&gt;high cost of pay back debt\u3002Fed\u7834\u4ea7\u98ce\u9669 Problem &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/fanyuzhao.com\/?p=2623\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">\u8fd1\u671f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u60c5\u51b5\uff082021\u603b\u7ed3\uff09<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,21],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fanyuzhao.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2623"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fanyuzhao.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fanyuzhao.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fanyuzhao.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fanyuzhao.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2623"}],"version-history":[{"count":44,"href":"https:\/\/fanyuzhao.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2623\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2670,"href":"https:\/\/fanyuzhao.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2623\/revisions\/2670"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fanyuzhao.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2623"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fanyuzhao.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2623"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fanyuzhao.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2623"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}