{"id":2725,"date":"2021-12-11T23:56:12","date_gmt":"2021-12-11T15:56:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fanyuzhao.com\/?p=2725"},"modified":"2022-08-28T22:46:59","modified_gmt":"2022-08-28T14:46:59","slug":"%e8%bf%91%e6%9c%9f%e7%bb%8f%e6%b5%8e%e6%83%85%e5%86%b5-omicron","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fanyuzhao.com\/?p=2725","title":{"rendered":"\u8fd1\u671f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u60c5\u51b5 Omicron"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<ul><li>\u5f53\u524d\u62a5\u9053\u8868\u9762Omicron\u6740\u4f24\u529b\u8f83\u5f31\u3002\u7ed3\u5408\u5176\u4f20\u67d3\u529b\u5f3a\u7684\u7279\u70b9\uff0c\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u5e2e\u52a9\u5168\u7403\u5b9e\u73b0\u7fa4\u4f53\u514d\u75ab\u3002\u7531\u6b64US\u5e02\u573a\u666e\u904d\u5bf9pandemic\u7684\u9884\u671f\u51cf\u5f31\u3002<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul><li>\u76ee\u524dFed\u653f\u7b56\u6025\u8f6c\u5411\u6536\u7d27\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\uff0c\u51cf\u5c11\u5370\u949e\u5e76\u52a0\u606f\u3002<strong>\u5e02\u573a\u666e\u904d\u8ba4\u4e3a\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u76ee\u524d\u7f8e\u56fd\u9ad8\u901a\u80c0<\/strong>\u3002CPI\u521b31\u5e74\u65b0\u9ad8\uff08\u6b64\u524d\u662foil crisis\uff09\u3002\u4f46\u662f<strong>potential reason<\/strong>\u662f\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5c31\u4e1a\u5e02\u573a\u4ee5\u8fd1\u9971\u548c\uff0c\u8fd1full employment\u3002\u7ee7\u7eed\u5bbd\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u523a\u6fc0\u5c31\u4e1a\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4hyperinflation\u3002<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<iframe src=\"https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/graph\/graph-landing.php?g=JKs1&amp;width=670&amp;height=475\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"overflow:hidden; width:670px; height:525px;\" allowtransparency=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<p>\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u5230labour force participant rate underwent a continuous decrease since 2000. It dropped to the bottom during the pandemic in April 2020 and recovered with the stimulation of public sectors&#8217; policy. However, if taking data before the pandemic, and estimating the decreasing trend (i.e. regress labour force participation rate on time), the forecasted value till current period is about the current value. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That finding implies the labour market has already recovered to the pre-pandemic level. The low level of the labour force participation rate might be that older people do not want to participate in the labour market again and waiting to retire. This implication is also backed by the fact of relatively low level of the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>P.S. there is a negative correlation between the unemployment rate and the federal fund rate. The federal fund rate hikes while the unemployment rate decreases. I would consider that <strong>Fed conducts contractionary monetary policy while the economy is close to full employment, controlling the economy not to be overheated.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe src=\"https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/graph\/graph-landing.php?g=JKsA&amp;width=670&amp;height=475\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"overflow:hidden; width:670px; height:525px;\" allowtransparency=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<p>Based on that, we can find that the Fed calling back the liquidity by increasing interest rate is reasonable. Predict that the Fed would hold a higher federal fund rate, decreasing liquidity and absorbing capital flowing back to the U.S.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Let&#8217;s think TAPER and federal fund rate increase together. With an increase in the interest rate in the U.S., money would pour into the U.S. pursuing higher interest rate payments. People would therefore sell assets from other countries for money, resulting in a decrease in the capital market.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u5f53\u524d\u62a5\u9053\u8868\u9762Omicron\u6740\u4f24\u529b\u8f83\u5f31\u3002\u7ed3\u5408\u5176\u4f20\u67d3\u529b\u5f3a\u7684\u7279\u70b9\uff0c\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u5e2e\u52a9\u5168\u7403\u5b9e\u73b0\u7fa4\u4f53\u514d\u75ab\u3002\u7531\u6b64US\u5e02\u573a\u666e\u904d\u5bf9pandemic\u7684\u9884\u671f\u51cf\u5f31\u3002 \u76ee\u524dFed\u653f\u7b56\u6025\u8f6c\u5411\u6536\u7d27\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\uff0c\u51cf\u5c11\u5370\u949e\u5e76\u52a0\u606f\u3002\u5e02\u573a\u666e\u904d\u8ba4\u4e3a\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u76ee\u524d\u7f8e\u56fd\u9ad8\u901a\u80c0\u3002CPI\u521b31\u5e74\u65b0\u9ad8\uff08\u6b64\u524d\u662foil crisis\uff09\u3002\u4f46\u662fpotential reason\u662f\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5c31\u4e1a\u5e02\u573a\u4ee5\u8fd1\u9971\u548c\uff0c\u8fd1full employment\u3002\u7ee7\u7eed\u5bbd\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u523a\u6fc0\u5c31\u4e1a\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4hyperinflation\u3002 \u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u5230labour force participant rate underwent a continuous decrease since 2000. It dropped to the bottom during the pandemic in April 2020 and recovered with the stimulation of public sectors&#8217; policy. However, if taking data before the pandemic, and estimating the decreasing trend (i.e. regress labour force participation rate on time), &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/fanyuzhao.com\/?p=2725\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">\u8fd1\u671f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u60c5\u51b5 Omicron<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,21],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fanyuzhao.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2725"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fanyuzhao.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fanyuzhao.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fanyuzhao.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fanyuzhao.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2725"}],"version-history":[{"count":30,"href":"https:\/\/fanyuzhao.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2725\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2757,"href":"https:\/\/fanyuzhao.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2725\/revisions\/2757"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fanyuzhao.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2725"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fanyuzhao.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2725"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fanyuzhao.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2725"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}