The Fed increase the federal fund rate and resulting in an increase in the nominal interest rate in the U.S. market. The U.S. dollar becomes more and more attractive to global investors due to mainly two reasons. One is that the U.S. dollar behaves as the safety currency (detailed reasonings are shown in the previous posts), and the other is that the increase in the interest rate attracts money from other countries to be invested in the U.S. market. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
U.S. dollar gets appreciated for the above two reasons, and thus the U.S. faces an increase in trade deficits. For the aggregate U.S. market, imports are way more than exports. However, those extra imports are clearly paid through the U.S. dollar or exchanged with other currencies (but shared with the same logic as paid with USD). And that extra amount of US dollar is from the helicopter drops and QE of the Fed. That means the extra US dollars back with nothing, but are used to purchase\/import assets from other countries. Right! it do not need to be backed by other in the current economy (Also, MMT advocates even crazy). <\/p>\n\n\n\n
I am telling that those facts are equivalent to that the U.S. is getting net imports from other countries for free. Also, the U.S. is sending its “worthless” extra currency to others, exchanging goods and services. Productions are not working in a good way for those exporting countries in the battle with the pandemic. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Due to the fact that the US dollar is the safest currency, the extra printed amount is absorbed by other countries that get net exports to the U.S. Those other countries export goods and services and import back inflation. There are also countries that conduct QE in a similar rhythm to the U.S. would face even higher inflation intuitively, because the US dollar is the safest one and the only one linked with crude oil and commonly accepted in commodities trading but other countries’ currencies are not.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Fed\u653e\u6c34\uff0c\u91ca\u653e\u7f8e\u5143\u4f9b\u7ed9\uff0c\u6309quantity theory of money\u7684\u8bf4\u6cd5\uff1apeople hoard money instead of spending them\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e2d\uff0c hyperinflation comes later than the theory tells\u3002\u539f\u56e0\u53ef\u4ee5\u90e8\u5206\u53ef\u4ee5\u53c2\u8003MMT\u3002\u540c\u65f6\u7f8e\u5143\u4f5c\u4e3a 1. \u6700safest\u7684\u8d27\u5e01\uff0c\u4e14 2. \u4e0e\u77f3\u6cb9\u6302\u94a9\uff0c\u5e76\u672a\u5927\u5b97\u5546\u54c1\u4ea4\u6613\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u5a92\u4ecb\uff0c\u4ecd\u7136\u6709\u5f88\u5927\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u3002\u5bfc\u81f4\u867d\u7136\u5e02\u573a\u4e0a\u7f8e\u5143\u4f9b\u7ed9\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u7d27\u5f20\u7684\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u3001\u4fc4\u4e4c\u6218\u4e89\u3001de-globalisation\u3001pandemic\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e0a\u8ff0\u4e24\u6761\u539f\u56e0\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u4e0a\u5bf9\u7f8e\u5143\u4ecd\u6709\u5927\u91cf\u9700\u6c42\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4inflation\u6ca1\u6709\u7acb\u523b\u5230\u6765\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u5927\u91cfprinted US dollar\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709real goods\\ productions or services\u7684\u652f\u6301\uff0c\u5f88\u591a\u51fa\u53e3\u5546\u54c1\u7684\u4ed6\u56fd\u516c\u53f8\u83b7\u5f97\u7f8e\u5143\uff08or other currencies, but similar as holding USD\uff09\u4ea4\u4ed8\uff08\u7f8e\u56fdimport\uff0c\u5176\u4ed6\u56fd\u5bb6export\uff09\uff0c\u8fd9\u91cc\u7684\u7f8e\u5143\u53ea\u80fd\u7528\u6765\u4ea4\u6613\u4e14\u4e3aextra\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e\u662fFed pays nothing\u5370\u7684\u94b1\uff0c\u4e70\u4e86real goods\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u51fa\u53e3\u56fd\u5bb6\u5931\u53bb\u4e86\u5546\u54c1\u3001\u4ea7\u80fd\u3001and factors\uff0c\u5f97\u5230\u4e86USD\uff0c\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e\u5f97\u5230\u4e86nothing but inflation\uff0c\u7531\u7f8e\u56fdextra money printed \u5e26\u6765\u7684 inflation\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u540c\u65f6\u4e00\u4e9b\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e0e\u7f8e\u56fd\u540c\u6b65QE\u5370\u94b1\uff0c\u6267\u884c\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7684monetary policy\u964d\u606f\uff0c\u4e3a\u4e86\u4fdd\u8bc1foreign exchange\u76f8\u5bf9\u7a33\u5b9a\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u8fd9\u4e9b\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u8d27\u5e01\u5e76\u975e\u5982\u540cUSD\u4e00\u6837highly demanded\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\u8fd9\u4e9b\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u8d27\u5e01\u96be\u4ee5\u4e0e\u7f8e\u5143\u7ee7\u7eedpeg\uff0c\u8131\u94a9\u540e\u4f1a\u5f15\u5165even higher inflation\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Implications\uff1a\u81ea\u4e3b\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\uff08\u800c\u975epeg\uff09\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\uff1b\u5916\u6c47\u50a8\u5907\u4ee5\u5e94\u5bf9\u7d27\u6025 \u5916\u6c47\u3001\u56fd\u9645\u7ecf\u6d4e\uff08\u5982\u5229\u5dee\u5012\u6302\uff09\u60c5\u51b5\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\uff1b\u4ee5\u53ca\u5916\u6c47\u5e02\u573a\u4e2dglobalisation\u60c5\u51b5\u53d8\u5316\u4e0b\u7684monetary policy\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
The Fed increase the federal fund rate and resulting in an increase in the nominal interest rate in the U.S. market. The U.S. dollar becomes more and more attractive to global investors due to mainly two reasons. One is that the U.S. dollar behaves as the safety currency (detailed reasonings are shown in the previous … Continue reading \u8fd1\u671f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u89c2\u5bdf – U.S. Trade Deficits<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,21],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fanyuzhao.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3580"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fanyuzhao.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fanyuzhao.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fanyuzhao.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fanyuzhao.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=3580"}],"version-history":[{"count":27,"href":"https:\/\/fanyuzhao.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3580\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3607,"href":"https:\/\/fanyuzhao.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3580\/revisions\/3607"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fanyuzhao.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=3580"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fanyuzhao.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=3580"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fanyuzhao.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=3580"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}