{"id":3853,"date":"2022-08-16T14:38:24","date_gmt":"2022-08-16T06:38:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fanyuzhao.com\/?p=3853"},"modified":"2022-08-29T20:48:13","modified_gmt":"2022-08-29T12:48:13","slug":"%e8%bf%91%e6%9c%9f%e7%bb%8f%e6%b5%8e%e8%a7%82%e5%af%9f-3","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fanyuzhao.com\/?p=3853","title":{"rendered":"\u8fd1\u671f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u89c2\u5bdf"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Global Market<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>The world economy has changed a lot since March when the Fed start to control the Inflation rate by increasing the federal fund rate, 4 times already. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Global Market: The 4th FOMC meeting ended with a 75 bp FFR increase. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The disclosure of several giant firms&#8217; interim statements helped recover the confidence in the US market. Powell states that the economy is not in a recession,  and inflation did decrease to a certain extent, so the tight monetary policy did achieve a bit. The US market is at a high FFR rate level already, and the Inflation data start to go down, with the downward movement of crude oil prices. Therefore, the market started to expect a mild movement in the short future. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The foreign market underwent also some &#8220;magic&#8221; movement. Due to the hike in the US interest rate, money and capital flowed to the US market, appreciating the USD relative to other currencies. EURO went down to even close to one to one, w.r.t. USD. GBP and CNY depreciated to a large degree as well. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u4e2d\u56fd\u5e02\u573a<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6b64\u524d\u63d0\u5230\uff0c\u5728Fed\u52a0\u606f\u8fdb\u7a0b\u4e2d\uff0c\u5404\u56fd\u592e\u884c\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u72ec\u7acb\u6027\u6536\u5230\u4e86\u538b\u7f29\u3002\u4e0eFed\u80cc\u9053\u800c\u9a70\u610f\u5473\u7740\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\u4f1a\u5438\u5f15capital\/money\u5411\u7f8e\u56fd\u5916\u6d41\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u4f7fdomestic country\u7684\u8d44\u672c\u88abUS\u69a8\u53d6\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6211\u56fd\u5f3a\u5916\u6c47\u7ba1\u5236\u4e00\u5b9a\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u524a\u5f31\u4e86Fed\u52a0\u606f\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fdCB\u72ec\u7acb\u6027\u7684\u51b2\u51fb\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u81ea2022\u5e744\u6708\u7ecf\u6d4e\u60c5\u51b5\u5927\u5e45\u8870\u5f31\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u9884\u671f\u56e0\u4e0a\u6d77\u75ab\u60c5\u7206\u53d1\u8fbe\u5230\u6781\u4f4e\u70b9\u3002\u5f53\u65f6\u6211\u56fdCB\u4e3a\u4e86\u523a\u6fc0\u7ecf\u6d4e\uff0c\u964d\u606f\u653e\u6c34\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u5730\u65b9\u8d22\u653f\u503a\u52a1\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u4e3a\u5730\u65b9\u653f\u5e9c\u63d0\u6760\u6746\uff08\u9690\u5f62&amp;&amp;||\u663e\u6027\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u523a\u6fc0\u6211\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u3002\u5f53\u65f6\u6211\u56fdCB\u7684\u64cd\u4f5c\u660e\u663e\u4e0eFed\u80cc\u9053\u800c\u9a70\uff0c\u5728USD dominates\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u6b64\u756a\u64cd\u4f5c\u663e\u7136\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u8d44\u672c\u5916\u9003\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\u6211\u56fdCB\u7684monetary policy\u7a7a\u95f4\u6709\u9650\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>8\u6708\u4e2d\u65ec\uff0c7\u6708\u4efd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6570\u636e\u516c\u5e03\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u5305\u62ec\u793e\u878d\u6570\u636e\u3002\u793e\u878d\u6570\u636e\u5927\u5e45\u4f4e\u4e8e\u9884\u671f\uff0c\u540c\u6bd4\u73af\u6bd4\u7686\u663e\u8457\u4f4e\u3002\u4e3b\u8981\u56e0\u6211\u56fdCB\u7684\u523a\u6fc0\u653f\u7b56\u57286\u6708\u5e95\u7ecf\u6d4e\u9884\u671f\u53cd\u5f39\u540e\u9010\u6e10\u9000\u51fa\u3002\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u5404\u5927\u91d1\u878d\u673a\u6784\u534a\u5e74\u6307\u6807\u5468\u671f\u7ed3\u675f\uff0c\u94f6\u884c\u5927\u5e45\u653e\u6b3e\u7684\u8fdb\u7a0b\u5468\u671f\u6027\u7ed3\u675f\u3002\u603b\u7684\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c7\u6708\u6570\u636e\u663e\u8457\u4f4e\u4e8e\u9884\u671f\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\uff1a\u539f\u56e0\u4e00\uff0c\u793e\u878d\u6570\u636e\u4e8e\u662f6\u6708\u5e95\u793e\u878d\u8fbe\u5230\u9ad8\u70b9\uff0c\u94f6\u884c\u5411\u4f01\u4e1a\u653e\u6b3e\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u8fbe\u5230\u4e00\u5b9a\u6781\u9650\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u81f39\u6708\u5747\u96be\u4ee5\u6709\u663e\u8457\u6539\u5584\uff08\u4f4611\u6708\/12\u6708\u5e74\u5e95\u6307\u6807\u4ecd\u9700\u8fbe\u6210\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u5e74\u5e95\u4ecd\u6709\u6570\u636e\u589e\u52a0\u7684\u7a7a\u95f4\uff09\uff1b\u539f\u56e0\u4e8c\uff0c\u653f\u7b56\u523a\u6fc0\u9000\u51fa\u3002\u653f\u7b56\u523a\u6fc0\u7684\u63a8\u51fa\u662f\u4e3a\u4e86\u4fdd\u8bc11. \u6211\u56fdCB\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u8fd8\u6709\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684\u7a7a\u95f4\uff0c2. \u9632\u6b62\u5e02\u573abubble\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u76ee\u524d\u771f\u5b9e\u5e02\u573a\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u5c0f\u5fae\u4f01\u4e1a\u53ca\u5c0f\u5fae\u7ecf\u8425\u4e3b\u4f53\u63a5\u8fde\u5012\u95ed\uff0cCB\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u4ecd\u7136\u65e0\u6cd5\u6709\u6548\u6295\u5165\u5230\u6c11\u8425\u4f01\u4e1a\u4e2d\uff08\u592e\u4f01\u56fd\u4f01\u7684\u786e\u663e\u8457\u83b7\u5f97\u4e86\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u652f\u6301\uff09\u3002\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5185\u5faa\u73af\u96be\u4ee5\u6709\u6548\u5efa\u7acb\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u56e0\u4e3aaggregate demand\u96be\u4ee5\u5f97\u5230\u523a\u6fc0\u3002\u6628\u65e58.15\uff0cCB\u5f00\u59cb\u518d\u6b21\u901a\u8fc7\u8d27\u5e01\u523a\u6fc0\u5e02\u573a\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\uff0c\u5f00\u59cb\u964dMLF\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Chinese Econ is running into trouble, a bit pessimistic. There seems a systematic and structural problem that low aggregate demands in the market. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Key Takeaway: <\/h4>\n\n\n\n<ul><li>Aggregate demand behaviours are acyclical, affecting inflation, and thus the policy makers&#8217; target.<\/li><li>Chinese Market move behind the expectation, or I would say in other ways. Prob 1: The market has been generating wrong expectations and not quickly adjusting. Prob 2: In a relatively stable market, Institutional Players herd to manipulate prices to a certain degree.<\/li><li>I guess the market has recognised that if there are no effectively systematical changes, the market won&#8217;t get better in the long run.<\/li><li>\u53cc\u5faa\u73af\u4e2d\uff0c\u5185\u5faa\u73af\u4ecd\u4e0d\u7545\u901a\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u539f\u56e01.\u65e9\u5e74\u95f4\u4f9b\u7ed9\u4fa7\u6539\u9769\u5e76\u65e0\u6cd5\u523a\u6fc0\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u7684\u6d88\u8d39\u89c2\u5ff5\uff1b2.\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7406\u8bba\u89d2\u5ea6\uff0c\u6536\u5165\u53ca\u9884\u671f\u4f4e\uff0c\u65e0\u6cd5\u5e26\u6765\u6d88\u8d39\u3002\u8fdb\u51fa\u53e3\u62c9\u52a8\u56fd\u5185\u7ecf\u6d4e\u3002<\/li><li>\u56fd\u5185\u591a\u91cd\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\uff0c\u56fd\u9645\u95f4\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u793e\u4f1a\uff08\u653f\u6cbb\u4eba\u7269\u793e\u4f1a\u53d1\u8a00\u5f20\u67d0\u7b49\uff09\u7b49\u4e3a\u793e\u4f1a\u7a33\u5b9a\u5e26\u6765\u8d1f\u9762\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/li><\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Global Market The world economy has changed a lot since March when the Fed start to control the Inflation rate by increasing the federal fund rate, 4 times already. The Global Market: The 4th FOMC meeting ended with a 75 bp FFR increase. The disclosure of several giant firms&#8217; interim statements helped recover the confidence &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/fanyuzhao.com\/?p=3853\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">\u8fd1\u671f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u89c2\u5bdf<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,21],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fanyuzhao.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3853"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fanyuzhao.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fanyuzhao.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fanyuzhao.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fanyuzhao.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=3853"}],"version-history":[{"count":27,"href":"https:\/\/fanyuzhao.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3853\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3884,"href":"https:\/\/fanyuzhao.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3853\/revisions\/3884"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fanyuzhao.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=3853"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fanyuzhao.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=3853"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fanyuzhao.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=3853"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}