Never Split the Difference

by Chris Voss

A former FBI Top Hostage Negotiator’s Filed-Tested Tools for Talking

Chapter 1 The New Rules

One core assumption is that feeling is a form of thinking. Inspired by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, people are neither fully rational nor completely selfish, and that their tastes are anything but stable. Thus, do not assume people make rational decision especially when they are in negotiation.

  • Human suffers several behavioural phenomenons or theories, including Cognitive Bias, Framing Effect, Prospect Theory, Loss Aversion, etc.
  • System 1 (fast, instinctive, and emotional) and System 2 (slow, deliberative, and logical) are there to guide and steer the rational thoughts.
  • Tactical Empathy. When individuals feel listened to, they tend to listen to themselves more carefully and to openly evaluate and clarify their own thoughts and feelings. Listening is a martial art.
  • Negotiation servers to distinct (1) information gathering and (2) behaviour influencing

Chapter 2 Be A Mirror

Negotiator should engage the process with a mindset of discovery. The goal is to extract and observe as much information as possible. We start with we know nothing, and get to explore in the negotiation.

  • Don’t commit to assumptions; instead, view them as hypotheses and use the negotiation to test them rigorously. Negotiation is not an act of battle, it’s a process of discovery.

  • Slow Down, put together all the puzzle pieces.

  • Use the Late-Night, FM DJ Voice: deep, soft, slow, and reassuring. Clam the other side down. It’s the voice of an easygoing, good-natured person. The attitude is light and encouraging. Relax and smile. Smiling would have an impact tonally.

  • Mirroring, also called isopaxism, is essentially imitation. It’s another neuro-behaviour humans display in which we copy each other to comfort each other. Establish Trust. Use mirrors to encourage the other side to empathise and bond with you, keep people talking, buy your side time to regroup, and encourage your counterparts to reveal their strategy.

    • Repeat the last three words of what someone has just said.
    1. Start with “I’m sorry …”
    2. Mirror. Repeat the last three words (or the critical one to three words).
    3. Silence. At least four seconds, to let the mirror work its magic on your counterpart.
    4. Repeat

Chapter 3 Don’t Feel Their Pain, Label It

Negotiation is about emotional and feelings. How can one separate people from the problem when the emotions are the problem?

Instead of denying or ignoring emotions, good negotiators identify and influence them. Emotion is a tool.

  • Tactical Empathy. The ability to recognise the perspective of a counterpart, and of that recognition.
    • That’s an academic way of saying that empathy is paying attention to another human being, asking what they are feeling and making a commitment to understanding their world.
    • understand the feelings and mindset of another in the moment and also hearing what is behind those feelings so you increase your influence in all the moments that follow.
    • Labeling, by spotting their feelings, turned them into words, and then very calmly and respectfully repeated their emotions back to them.
    • Labeling is a way of validating someone’s emotion by acknowledging it. Give someone’s emotion a name and you show you identify with how the person feels.
    • use the wording with “roughly”: “it looks like you are …”, “it seems you don’t want to go back to jail”.
    • when you phrase a label as a neutral statement of understanding, it encourages your counterpart to be responsive.
    • The last rule of labeling is silence. Once thrown out a label, be quite and listen.
    • Label counterpart’s fears to diffuse their power. When deal with a person who wants to be appreciated and understood. So use labels to reinforce and encourage positive perceptions and dynamics.
    • when people are shown photos of faces expressing strong emotion, the brain shows greater activity in the amygdala, the part that generates fear. But when they are asked to label the emotion, the activity moves to the areas that govern rational thinking. In other words, labeling an emotion-applying rational words to a fear-disrupt its raw intensity.
    • list the worst things that the other party could say about you and say them before the other person can.

Chapter 4 Beware “Yes” – Master “No”

“Yes” is often a meaningless answer that hides deeper objection (and “Maybe” is even worse). Pushing hard for “Yes” doesn’t get a negotiator any closer to a win; it just angers the other side. “No” is pure gold. That negative provides a great opportunity for you and the other party to clarify what you really want by eliminating what you don’t want. ‘No’ is not failure, it lead to “Yes”, as the final goal. Don’t get to ‘Yes’ before the final. “No “make people feel safe, “Yes” make people guard.

  • “No” could be one of the alternative, i.e. I am not yet ready to agree;I don’t understand; I don’t think I can afford it.
  • After getting ‘No’, ask solution-based questions or simply label their effect, i.e. what about this doesn’t work for you? what would you need to make it work?
  • Every ‘No’ gets me closer to ‘Yes’. But how to lead to a ‘No’? Two ways as below.
    • Mislabel one’s emotions or desires. Say something that you know is totally wrong, i.e. “So it seems that you really are eager to leave your job”. That forces them to listen and makes them comfortable correcting you by saying ‘No’.
    • Ask the other party what they don’t want. People are comfortable saying ‘No’ because it feels like self-protection. And once you’ve gotten them to say ‘No’, people are much more open to moving forward to new options and ideas.
  • In Email, how ever to be ignored again. Provoke a “No” with a one-sentence email.

Chapter 5 Trigger The Two Words That Immediately Transform Any Negotiation

Never try to get “Yes” at the end point. “Yes” is nothing without “how”. In business negotiation, “that’s right” often leads to the best outcomes. “That’s right” is great, however if “You’re right”, nothing changes. Consider this: whenever someone is bothering you, and they just won’t let up, and they won’t listen to anything you have to say, what do you tell them to get them to shut up and go away? The answer is “You’re right”.

  • The more person feels understood, and positively affirmed in that understanding, the more likely that urge for constructive behaviour will take hold.
  • “That’s right” is better than “Yes”. Strive for it. Reaching “That’s right” in a negotiation creates breakthroughs.
  • Use a summary to trigger a “that’s right”. The building blocks of a good summary are a label combined with paraphrasing. Identify, reariculate, and emotionally affirm “the world according to…”

Chapter 6 Bend Their Reality

People are emotional, irrational beasts who are emotional and irrational in predictable, pattern-filled way. Using the knowledge and tools to bend the reality is rational, not cheating. Tools are:

  • Don’t let yourself be fooled by the surface.
  • Not not Compromise by a split difference.
    • The win-win mindset pushed by so many negotiation experts is usually ineffective and often disastrous.
    • Compromise is often a ‘bad deal’. No deal is better than a bad deal.
  • Approaching deadlines. Deadlines regularly make people say and do impulsive things that are against their best interest, because we all have a natural tendency to rush as a deadline approaches. Having a deadline pushes you to speed up your concessions, but the other side, thinking that it has time, will just hold out for more. So, reveal the deadline to the counterpart could reduce the risks of impasse, and lead to a quickest concession.
  • Page 120
  • The F-word, “Fair”, is an emotional term people usually exploit to put the other side on the defensive and gain concessions. When your counterpart drops the F-bomb, don’t get suckered into a concession. Instead, ask them to explain how you’re mistreating them.
  • Bend the counterpart’s reality by anchoring one’s starting point.
  • People will take more risks to avoid a loss than to realise a gain. Make sure your counterpart sees that there is more things to lose by inaction. (Prospect Theory)

The Shortest History of Europe

Chapter 1

  • 古典时期 (1 – 476) 到 中世纪 (476 – 1400)

古典时期: BNG: 1AD 耶稣; 313君士坦丁改奉基督教; END: 476罗马帝国灭亡

中世纪: 476 – 1400

  • 古希腊学术 + 基督教 + 日耳曼

古希腊人观点:世界可以被简单逻辑和数学表达

基督教观点:耶稣拯救世界

日耳曼蛮族:好战的民族

三者之间达成了融合与传承:1. 希腊城邦体制,人们开始探索哲学数学等理论。2. 罗马帝国扩张疆域、接纳古希腊学术,但起初并不融合基督教。3. 君士坦丁大帝改奉基督教313年,罗马帝国开始融合基督教。4. 基督教会将希腊和罗马的知识成就保留下来。

  • Key Stages: 1. 公元313年,君士坦丁大帝改奉基督教使得教会与罗马帝国融合。2. 日耳曼灭罗马,但保留基督教(目的为帮助统治)。3.基督教帮助保留希腊的知识、思想、哲学etc.

常识的力量 书评

因此,从文字的演进再结合中国人的思维和行为实例,大致可以看出,东方传统思维的特征大体是归纳能力强,逻辑演绎推理弱,辩证逻辑能力强于形式逻辑;注重局部与个案经验,忽视整体思维,缺少理论框架。从表意文字到写意绘画,再到如今给予新股、科创板或新兴产业较高的估值,这之间是否有一定的内在联系呢?

摘自李迅雷 书评

参考李迅雷的书评和结合我自己的一些想法,我发现国人教育培养出来的适合社会的人往往是:归纳能力强,逻辑演绎推理弱,创新想法弱或被限制。

价值投资的常识

  • 1. 重视行业竞争格局

在股票投资中,我们要高度重视行业竞争格局的分析,因为良好的竞争格局可以帮助企业将竞争对手阻挡在外,获取持续的超额利润。不同竞争类型的市场结构决定了企业所获得超额利润的持续性。越是接近完全竞争的市场结构,行业内企业数量越多,竞争越激烈,企业没有定价权,最终只能获得市场的平均利润率。反之,越是接近垄断类型的市场结构,龙头企业在行业内的垄断优势明显,拥有产品的定价权,更容易在竞争中获取超额利润

( 国企牌照经营带来垄断 )

但我们会发现,很多人在做投资的时候,经常会优先选择成长性高、想象空间大的行业。在这里,我想告诉大家的是,行业是否高增长可能没想象中那么重要行业高增长固然是好事情,但高成长性势必会吸引大量竞争者进入这个行业,行业内竞争激烈,竞争格局不够清晰和稳定,这对投资者来说需要承担更高的投资风险。此外,高成长性行业往往具有高估值的特点,投资者对未来盈利增速预期较高,这会导致其盈利增速低于预期的概率大大提升。而在竞争格局稳定的行业,即使行业增速趋缓,但龙头公司依然能凭借其核心竞争力持续稳定地获得超额利润,拥有更高的投资确定性。

( 行业是否高增长 v.s. 行业的行业内竞争情况 竞争即考虑 entry difficulty and substitution)

在A股有很多典型的案例,比如贵州茅台、海螺水泥、格力电器等,这些公司所处的行业虽然成长性不是很突出,但他们都拥有良好的行业竞争格局,充分享受行业集中度提升所带来的红利。反过来,我们也看到很多成长性似乎很高、想象空间很大的行业,如光伏、通信设备、人工智能等,行业竞争格局高度不确定,里边的公司不断被超越、被颠覆,投资难度极大。

因此,和成长性相比,行业竞争格局可能更为重要。如果一个行业同时拥有这两个特点,即竞争格局稳定且成长性高,自然是投资的最优选择,但这样的投资机会非常少见。当两者相互矛盾的时候,我们会优先选择竞争格局稳定的行业。

  • 选择最具竞争力的优秀公司

最具竞争力的优秀公司同时拥有良好的行业竞争格局和宽阔的护城河这两个特点,投资者选择这样的公司能够充分享受公司内在价值增长所带来的长期回报。

在日常生活中,很多人非常喜欢后来者居上的故事,因为一旦成功,往往能够给投资者带来丰厚的回报。就像一场比赛进行到一半的时候,原本劣势的一方如果开始出现反转,最后实现反超,往往是最激动人心的时刻。但事实上,真的有这么多后来者居上的故事吗?历史经验告诉我们,后来居上是一个小概率事件,而强者恒强才是大概率事件。所以,我们在投资中要选择最具竞争力的优秀公司,而不赌差公司会变好,因为好公司不容易变坏,坏公司更难变好。很多陷入困境的企业,需要面临许多亟待解决的问题,一个问题尚未解决,另一个问题已经接踵而来。而优秀企业的护城河要经历很长时间才能形成,一旦形成,竞争者将会很难撼动优秀企业在行业内的地位。就像贵州茅台,已经成为中国白酒的代名词,占据消费者心智,它在消费者心中的品牌优势是很多白酒企业难以撼动的,所以即使面临白酒行业增速放缓,茅台还能通过行业集中度的提高实现公司内在价值的快速增长。

2017年以来,A股市场发生了变化,市场开始愿意给具有竞争力的龙头企业一定的确定性溢价,这和2017年以前,市场喜欢炒小市值股、垃圾股公司是截然相反的。这是市场的巨大进步。

  • 3. 做优秀公司的长期朋友

巴菲特曾说过:“时间是优秀企业的朋友,却是平庸企业的敌人。”从长期来看,优秀的公司往往能够经受住时间的洗礼,历经宏观周期的更迭变换依然能保持稳定的业绩增长,穿越牛熊。随着时间的流逝,他们的护城河将会不断加深,内在价值不断提高,长期持有他们将会获得可观的超额回报。我们要高度注重公司的核心竞争力,而公司短期的业绩波动实则没有那么重要,更无需为公司的短期股价波动而过分操心。作为价值投资者,我们应该做优秀公司的长期朋友,充分享受时间所创造的复利价值。

做优秀公司的长期朋友,这就意味着我们不以短期价差为买入目的,不依赖频繁交易创造回报。频繁交易意味着投资者要做大量关于短期股价走势的准确判断,但其实是非常困难的。上海证券交易所曾经统计过2016年至2019年期间各类投资者的收益率情况,从中我们可以得出一个结论,无论是机构投资者还是散户投资者,均很难依靠择时获取收益,择时只是一种神话。用仓位的大幅波动做时机选择和波段交易,寻找短期价差所带来的收益,很难给组合带来正贡献,同时还会消耗你大量的时间和精力,并且你可能还要支付高昂的交易成本。

( 长期投资 )

  • 4. 留足安全边际,相信均值回归的力量

价格回归价值

不要过分相信相对估值,因为相对估值往往基于假设市场有效 价格已经反应价值 某公司 或者 某些公司价值正确且 无 anomaly无behaviours 或其deducted,再用ratio估target firm。

明显假设难以holds, especially in Chinese market that illusion largely exist.

  • 5. 追求正确的非共识,从定价错误中寻找超额收益

Clear, and similar as above

  • 6. 选择优秀公司构建组合,并注重组合均衡

allocate risks and eliminate unsystematic risks.

  • 7. 区分“重要的事”和“能力圈内的事”

价值投资者的常识清单中,有一件非常重要的事情,那就是区分“重要的事”和“能力圈内的事”。

在股票投资中,有很多东西,尽管非常重要,但这些东西不是你能力范围内能预测、能把控的事情,你就不应该把你的时间精力放在研究和预测这些东西上。对绝大多数投资者来说,甚至对绝大多数机构投资者来说,宏观经济就是“重要但是能力圈外”的事情。

这是因为:其一,宏观经济本身很难预测,大部分经济学家的预测类似于“算命”,其命中率其实乏善可陈。有人曾经这样开玩笑:“经济学家预测出了过去5次衰退中的9次”。其二,宏观经济走势和股票市场走势之间,也未必是强相关性,股票市场提前、同步、滞后反映宏观经济,都有可能,所以根据宏观经济判断来预测股票市场走势,理论上很正确,实践中非常困难、非常不靠谱。反过来,如果你真有能力预测宏观经济,而且能从宏观经济推导出股票市场走势,那么大家买股指期货就可以了,根本就不需要研究和投资个股了,因为股指期货带杠杆、收益更高。

正因为这样,投资大师巴菲特就指出“做宏观预测,或者听别人的宏观或市场预测,纯属浪费时间。事实上,它还是很危险的,可能让你的视野变得模糊,看不清真正重要的东西。”另一位投资大师彼得.林奇也说过:“根本没有任何人能够提前预测出未来利率变化、宏观经济趋势以及股票市场走势。不要理会任何对未来利率、宏观经济和股市的预测,集中精力关注你投资公司正在发生什么变化。”

( Macroeconomy in China does not largely depend on the market, but policy. Therefore, marecoeconomy is about the collusion control, health of firms, support from gov – policy, and another key fact international finance or international relationship )

不光是这些投资大师认为宏观经济、股票市场不可预测,我观察我身边的专业投资者,越是成功的投资者,越少关心宏观经济走势和股票市场走势。那么这些成功投资者,他们关心什么问题呢?答案是“能力圈内的事”。

第一,行业竞争格局好不好? industry orgnisation

第二,公司壁垒深不深? entry barrier

第三,公司抗风险能力强不强? risk control or inner control

第四,公司是不是为股东赚钱? Profitability

第五,公司业务会否被替代颠覆? substitutivness

这些事情,既是重要的,又是能力圈内的。股票投资,要聚焦在这些“重要且能力圈内的”事情。

  • 8. 了解并避免决策盲区

我们在做股票投资时,也经常会遇到自己的决策盲区,也很容易受到诸多非理性因素的影响,从而做出非理性决策。

丹尼尔·卡尼曼在《思考,快与慢》一书中指出,人类的大脑分为两个系统,即系统1和系统2。其中,系统1的运行是无意识且快速的,它经常依赖情感、记忆和经验迅速做出判断,系统2则需要耗费更多的注意力来分析和解决问题。通常情况下,系统1会优先于系统2做出决策,但系统1也很容易上当,更容易受到非理性因素的影响,从而引导我们做出错误的决策。系统2则相对缓慢,比较不容易出错,可以帮助抑制住系统1的冲动,表现为更为理性的分析和有逻辑的判断,但它经常走捷径,倾向于跟从系统1的决策。正因为如此,我们需要学会多调动大脑的系统2进行思考,避免跟随系统1随意决策、快速决策。

对于价值投资者来说,要清醒认识到自己的决策可能会因为认知误区而变得不那么理性,要时刻提醒自己陷入这些认知误区。所以说,价值投资不仅仅需要知识,需要技能,更需要和各种人性弱点作斗争,这也是价值投资知易行难的根本原因。

最后总结一下,常识在投资中至关重要,建立正确的认知,将有助于提升我们决策的胜率。

在《常识的力量》一书中,我总结了价值投资者所需要遵循的常识。这些均是我自己对价值投资的思考和理解,但未必是所有人的认知。比如对于行业竞争格局和行业成长空间哪个更重要这个话题,大家由于投资哲学和投资方法论的差异,结论是完全不一样的。但不管如何,我希望这些“常识”,能帮助大家提供一个深度思考的视角,帮助大家避免思维上的盲区。

Reference

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/pZ8NpgmzzOb6JaEsP6AGmw

Thinking, Fast and Slow

A book was written by Daniel Kahneman, a Nobel Prize of Economics winner in 2002.

  • This book introduces a fact that our brain is running with system 1 and system 2.

System 1 is also called the “automatic system”, which is controlled by our innate and automatic consciousness. System 2 is also called “effortful system”, which could be understood as the ability to actively control our common-sense – system 1. However, system 2 takes more working memory that is limited in our brain, so doing anything using system 2 would reduce your ability to think.

System 2 also monitor the suggestion of System 1, modifying and adjusting the direct conscious idea of System 1.

System 2 has limited capacity. Two aspects of effortful tasks are (1) difficulty of the question, and (2) thinking fast the get the results.

  • Pupils are sensitive indicators of mental efforts.

Pupils dilate substantially when people make two digits multiplication, and they dilate more this problem is harder. People, when engaged in a mental sprint, may become effectively blind.

  • Ego depletion refers to the idea that self-control or willpower draws upon a limited pool of mental resources that can be used up

System 2 has limits.

  • Self-control requires efforts and attentions. Or says, controlling thoughts and behaviours is one of the tasks that system 2 performs.

Remember system 2 has limits.

Activities that impose high demands on system 2 require self-control, and the exertion of self-control is depleting and unpleasant. After exerting self-control in one task, you do not feel like making an effort in another, although you could do it if you really had to.

Maintenance of a coherent train of thought and the occasional engagement in effortful thinking also requires self-control.

  • The nervous system consumes more glucose than most other parts of the body, and effortful mental activity appears to be especially expensive in the currency of glucose.

退休感言-孙振耀(HP大中华区总裁)

职业生涯就像一场体育比赛,有初赛、复赛、决赛。初赛的时候大家都刚刚进社会,大多数都是实力一般的人,这时候努力一点认真一点很快就能让人脱颖而出,于是有的人二十多岁做了经理,有的人迟些也终于赢得了初赛,三十多岁成了经理。然后是复赛,能参加复赛的都是赢得初赛的,每个人都有些能耐,在聪明才智上都不成问题,这个时候再想要胜出就不那么容易了,单靠一点点努力和认真还不够,要有很强的坚忍精神,要懂得靠团队的力量,要懂得收服人心,要有长远的眼光……看上去赢得复赛并不容易,但,还不是那么难。因为这个世界的规律就是给人一点成功的同时让人骄傲自满,刚刚赢得初赛的人往往不知道自己赢得的仅仅是初赛,有了一点小小的成绩大多数人都会骄傲自满起来,认为自己已经懂得了全部,不需要再努力再学习了,他们会认为之所以不能再进一步已经不是自己的原因了。虽然他们仍然不好对付,但是他们没有耐性,没有容人的度量,更没有清晰长远的目光。

职业生涯要关注自己想要什么。人都是要面子的,也是喜欢攀比的,即使在工作上也喜欢攀比,不管那是不是自己想要的。但是攀比并非是好的。

好工作,应该是适合你的工作,具体点说,应该是能给你带来你想要的东西的工作,你或许应该以此来衡量你的工作究竟好不好,而不是拿公司的大小,规模,外企还是国企,是不是有名,是不是上市公司来衡量。

我还是过普通人的日子,要普通人的快乐,至少,晚上睡得着觉。

工作是一件需要理智的事情,所以不要在工作上耍个性。你所在的公司并没有那么烂,你认为不错的公司也没有那么好。35岁以前我们的生存资本靠打拼,35岁以后生存的资本靠的就是积累,这种积累包括人际关系,经验,人脉,口碑……

一份工作到两三年的时候,大部分人都会变成熟手,这个时候往往会陷入不断的重复,有很多人会觉得厌倦,有些人会觉得自己已经搞懂了一切,从而懒得去寻求进步了。很多时候的跳槽是因为觉得失去兴趣了,觉得自己已经完成比赛了。其实这个时候比赛才刚刚开始

并不是你的每一份努力都会得到回报,并不是你的每一次坚持都会有人看到,并不是你每一点付出都能得到公正的回报,并不是你的每一个善意都能被理解……这个,就是世道。好吧,世道不够好,可是,你有推翻世道的勇气么?如果没有,你有更好的解决办法么?有很多时候,人需要一点耐心,一点信心。每个人总会轮到几次不公平的事情,而通常,安心等待是最好的办法。

逆境,是上帝帮你淘汰竞争者的地方。要知道,你不好受,别人也不好受,你坚持不下去了,别人也一样,千万不要告诉别人你坚持不住了,那只能让别人获得坚持的信心,让竞争者看着你微笑的面孔,失去信心,退出比赛。胜利属于那些有耐心的人。

第一件是入行,第二件事情是跟人。要做对的事情,不要让自己今后几十年的人生总是提心吊胆,更不值得为了一份工作赔上自己的青春年华。

好的领导的标准: 首先,好领导要有宽广的心胸,忍住脾气,忍得了比自己强的人;其次,领导要愿意从下属的角度来思考问题,这一点其实是从面试的时候就能发现的,如果这位领导总是从自己的角度来考虑问题,几乎不听你说什么,这就危险了。第三,领导敢于承担责任,如果出了问题就把责任往下推,有了功劳就往自己身上揽,这样的领导不跟也罢。

多认识一些人,多和比自己强的人打交道,同样能找到好的老师,不要和一群同样郁闷的人一起控诉社会,控诉老板,这帮不上你,只会让你更消极。和那些比你强的人打交道,看他们是怎么想的,怎么做的,学习他们,然后跟更强的人打交道。

公司小的时候是销售主导公司,而公司大的时候是财务主导公司,销售的局限性在于只看人情不看数字,财务的局限性在于只看数字不看人情。

人生的三个阶段:一个阶段是为现实找一份工作,一个阶段是为现实,但可以选择一份自己愿意投入的工作,一个阶段是为理想去做一些事情。