中国金融发展促进共同富裕

中国金融发展促进共同富裕需要着力于以下五点:

1. 金融回归服务实体经济

  • 减少金融抑制,推动金融市场化发展:1. 减少政府干预、推进资本要素市场化配置、完善股票市场基础制度、加快发展债券市场。2. 加快金融领域市场化改革,推进存贷款基准利率与市场利率并轨,提高债券市场定价效率。
  • 增强人民币汇率弹性,保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。
  • 避免经济脱实向虚

2. 促进房地产业健康发展,努力实现住有所居

  • 房地产为金融与实体经济的枢纽,房地产业对于政府是经济发展的重要抓手,对于银行是信贷的抵押物,对于消费者是重要财产与住处。
  • 坚持房住不炒,房地产供应保障需求,稳地价房价。
  • 政府介入,保障房政策。

3. 落实农民土地财产权利,缩小城乡收入差距

  • 参考“荷兰农业”
  • 土地市场化资本化 与 农民利益的博弈 – 效率 与 公平的博弈

4. 发展普惠金融,使低收入群体也能分享增长红利

  • 提升小微企业和低收入群体获得信贷的可能。 普-普遍+惠-低价
  • 降低准入门槛,使低收入群体能分享收益 – 居民利息、股息、红利、租金、保险等 金融基建

5. 重视金融科技的双刃剑效应,推进金融科技向善

  • 数字金融 对于农村 西部等地区欠完善,不够人性,难以深入消费者中
  • 规范金融科技。 保证金融科技在私人收益率与社会收益率保持一致。
  • 数据整治,隐私权 安全管理

Reference

学习参考 金融发展与共同富裕的“中国故事” 张晓晶

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/dcH19UuBstFTEeJ7-g84MQ

货币+信用 分析

一般来讲(参考“宽信用阶段哪些行业会有超额收益?”)宽货币+宽信用 or 紧货币+紧信用为目标状态。即 货币为政策的工具(为实现货币政策目标),信用为市场方向。当政策与市场同向,可以理解为政策工具即货币的调整使得市场达到想要的效果。

那么 宽货币+紧信用 and 紧货币+宽信用 即为达成货币政策目标的中间态。

我国经济情况总体为控制风险,宽货币大多仅在为刺激经济发展时出现。当前国内经济不景气,中央政策刺激经济发展而采取增加专项债、针对小微企业贷款释放等政策。但是银行为了限定违约率往往难以执行这些政策。

但是具体行业对宽货币宽信用的反应难以一概而论。

宽货币:降准 降息 etc

近期经济观察

  • 第十三届全国人大常委会将于2022年3月5日召开。
  • 全国政协十三届五次会议将于2022年3月4日召开。

人大会议《政府工作报告》包括主要四个部分。

  • 1. 2021回顾
  • 2. 社会经济发展总需求

Estimate: 稳中求进+高质量发展

  • 3. 今年经济社会发展总目标:
  1. 5.5%经济增长。按域不同
  2. 增加城镇就业,减少失业率
  3. 通胀目标3%
  4. 进出口平稳,国际收支平稳
  5. 居民收入增长 与 经济增长基本同步
  6. 粮食产量1.3万亿斤
  • 4. 今年工作重点:
  1. 加大宏观政策力度: 财政政策货币政策协调乏力。减税,扩大支出,基建投资,遏制隐形债务,防范金融风险,引导金融机构对小微企业、科技创新、绿色发展的支持。
  2. 深化改革:要素市场化、全面股票注册制、国企改革、电网铁路等自然垄断行业改革,强化反垄断。(牌照行业反垄断)
  3. 创新驱动:支持创新,为此增加基础研究投入、加大税收优惠政策、扩大设备投资、发展数字经济。
  4. 扩大内需和区域协调与新型城镇化:扩大家电汽车等大宗消费,扩大有效投资。新能源+大宗商品。住房改革etc
  5. 乡村振兴:粮食生产+粮食供给+高标准农田建设
  6. 扩大开放:对出口企业政策支持,减税降费。扩大开放,有效利用外资,共建一带一路。
  7. 绿色低碳:发展新能源环保产业。
  8. 防范化解金融风险
  9. 改善民生:医疗、教育、养老、就业。

财政

21年财政收入同比增加,财政支出同比保持相对稳定。

专项债投入稳步增长。应对农林、生态、社会事业、交通基建、城镇冷链等。

土地出让金下行风险 – 房地产市场不景气

货币

面临问题:需求收缩、供给冲击、预期转弱。1. 疫情冲击、需求减弱;2. 房地产投资负增及相关产业链不景气;3. 出口压力 国际压力。

宽信用:资金刺激小微企业、个体商户、农业经营主体

避免陷入流动性陷阱。避免陷入负利率时代,利率调整将失去刺激经济的作用。增加金融风险。不可盲目对标国外负利率政策,要有长远考虑。

关注海外加息压力及汇率压力。目前Fed紧缩,us利率提升,目前国际收支健康。但fed政策继续加大可能会吸引国际资本回流美国,同时影响中国市场。

全国商品涨价、能源装甲、劳动力短缺、供应链问题、通胀压力持续。

我国双循环仍大量依赖出口,若出口增速回落会对国内经济复苏产生巨大压力。

Isoquant

An isoquant map where production output Q3 > Q2 > Q1. Typically inputs X and Y would refer to labour and capital respectively. More of input X, input Y, or both are required to move from isoquant Q1 to Q2, or from Q2 to Q3.

MRTS equals the slope of the Isoquant.

Difference with the Indifference Curve

Isoquant and indifference curves behave similarly, as they are all kinds of contour curves. The difference is that the Isoquant maps the output, but the indifference curve maps the utility.

In addition, the indifference curve describes only the preference of individuals but does not capture the exact value of utility. The preference is the relative desire for certain goods or services to others. However, the Isoquant can capture the exact number of production.

Shape of the Isoquant

The shape of the Isoquant depends on whether inputs are substitutions or complements.

Example of an isoquant map with two inputs that are perfect substitutes.
Example of an isoquant map with two inputs that are perfect complements.

Convexity

As we always assume diminishing returns, so MRTS normally is declining. Thus, the Isoquant is convex to the origin.

However, if there is an increasing return of scale, or there is a negative elasticity of substitution ( as the ratio of input A to input B increases, the marginal product of A relative to B increases rather than decreases), then the Isoquant could be non-convex.

A nonconvex isoquant is prone to produce large and discontinuous changes in the price minimizing input mix in response to price changes. Consider for example the case where the isoquant is globally nonconvex, and the isocost curve is linear. In this case the minimum cost mix of inputs will be a corner solution, and include only one input (for example either input A or input B). The choice of which input to use will depend on the relative prices. At some critical price ratio, the optimum input mix will shift from all input A to all input B and vice versa in response to a small change in relative prices.

Reference

Learned from Wikipedia.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isoquant

Thinking, Fast and Slow

A book was written by Daniel Kahneman, a Nobel Prize of Economics winner in 2002.

  • This book introduces a fact that our brain is running with system 1 and system 2.

System 1 is also called the “automatic system”, which is controlled by our innate and automatic consciousness. System 2 is also called “effortful system”, which could be understood as the ability to actively control our common-sense – system 1. However, system 2 takes more working memory that is limited in our brain, so doing anything using system 2 would reduce your ability to think.

System 2 also monitor the suggestion of System 1, modifying and adjusting the direct conscious idea of System 1.

System 2 has limited capacity. Two aspects of effortful tasks are (1) difficulty of the question, and (2) thinking fast the get the results.

  • Pupils are sensitive indicators of mental efforts.

Pupils dilate substantially when people make two digits multiplication, and they dilate more this problem is harder. People, when engaged in a mental sprint, may become effectively blind.

  • Ego depletion refers to the idea that self-control or willpower draws upon a limited pool of mental resources that can be used up

System 2 has limits.

  • Self-control requires efforts and attentions. Or says, controlling thoughts and behaviours is one of the tasks that system 2 performs.

Remember system 2 has limits.

Activities that impose high demands on system 2 require self-control, and the exertion of self-control is depleting and unpleasant. After exerting self-control in one task, you do not feel like making an effort in another, although you could do it if you really had to.

Maintenance of a coherent train of thought and the occasional engagement in effortful thinking also requires self-control.

  • The nervous system consumes more glucose than most other parts of the body, and effortful mental activity appears to be especially expensive in the currency of glucose.

Surprised Finding from the Book-Thinking, Fast and Slow

Currently, I am reading a book, Thinking, Fast and Slow, which is written by Daniel Kahneman. In this book, the author mentioned a person called Amos several times. As I am pretty interested in the findings and statements in this book, I went to search for who Amos is.

A report caught my eye.

https://www.newyorker.com/books/page-turner/the-two-friends-who-changed-how-we-think-about-how-we-think

That report is written by Cass R. Sunstein and Richard Thaler, two famous psychologists or behaviour economists. Especially, Professor Thaler, if my remembering is not wrong, aroused many ideas about behavioural economics and won the Nobel Prize as well. In this report, they mentioned their Two Friends Who Changed How We Think About How We Think, and their friends clearly are Daniel and Amos.

I am pretty surprised that I find the connection between those famous and legendary economists and psychologists, and decide to keep digging in their previous studies.

Lagrange Multiplier

Here is a review of the method of Lagrangian method. We find that maximising a utility function s.t. a budget constant by using Lagrangian could also get the MRS.

$$\max_{x,y} U(x,y)\quad s.t.\quad BC$$

Or, in a Cobb-Douglas utility.

$$\max_{x,y} x^a y^b\quad s.t.\quad p_x x+p_y y\leq w $$

Using the Lagrange Multiplier,

$$\mathcal{L}=x^a y^b +\lambda (w-p_x x- p_y y)$$

Discuss the complementary slackness, and take F.O.C.

$$ \frac{\partial \mathcal{L}}{\partial x}=0 \Rightarrow a x^{a-1}y^b=\lambda p_x $$

$$ \frac{\partial \mathcal{L}}{\partial y}=0 \Rightarrow x^a b y^{b-1}=\lambda p_y $$

Divide those two equations then we get,

$$ \frac{MU_x}{MU_y}=\frac{ay}{bx}=\frac{p_x}{p_y}=MRS_{x,y} $$

After knowing the Marshallian Demandm \(x=f(p_x,p_y,w)\), we can then calculate the elasticity.

  • \(\varepsilon=\frac{\partial x}{\partial p_x}\frac{p_x}{x}\), elasticity to price of x.
  • \(\varepsilon_I=\frac{\partial x}{\partial w}\frac{w}{x}\), elasticity to wealth.
  • \( \varepsilon_{xy}=\frac{\partial x}{\partial p_y}\frac{p_y}{x} \), elasticity to price of y.

Meaning of Lambda

Review the graphic version of the utility maximisation problem, the budget constraint is the black plane, the utility function is green, and the value of utility is the contour of the utility function.

After solving the utility maximisation problem, we would get \(x^*\) and \(y^*\) (they have exact values). Then, plug them back into the F.O.C., we get easily get the numerical value of \(\lambda\).

As \(\frac{\partial \mathcal{L}}{\partial w}=\lambda\), \(\lambda\) represents how does the utility changes if wealth changes a unit.

\(\lambda\) is like the slope of the utility surface. With the increase, the wealth, the budget constraint (the black wall) moves outwards, and then the changes would result in an increase of the utility value, which is the intersection of the utility surface and the budget constraint surface.

Similarly, the utility function could be replaced with production and has a similar implication of output production.

Geographical Meaning

\(\lambda\) is when the gradient of the contour of the utility function is in the same direction as the gradient of constraint. Or says, the gradient of \(f\) is equal to the gradient of \(g\).

In another word, the Lagrange multiplier \(\lambda\) gives the max and min value of \(x\) and \(y\), and also the corresponding changing speed of those max or mini values of our objective function, \(f\), if the constraint, \(g\), releases.

Lagrange Multiplier:

Simultaneously solve \(\nabla f=\lambda\nabla g\), and \(g=0\). \(f\) here is the objective function (utility function in our case), and \(g\) here is the constraint (the budget constraint in our case).

Reference

Thanks to the video from Professor Burkey, that helps a lot to let me rethink the meaning of lambda.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O3MFXT7AdPg

And the geographic implication of Lagrange multiplier method.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8mjcnxGMwFo

MRS and MRTS

Derivations

We here derive why \(MRS_{x,y}=\frac{MU_x}{MU_y}\).

Let \(U(x,y)=f(x,y)\), and we know, by definition, MRS measures how many units of x is needed to trade y holding utility constant. Thus, we keep the utility function unchanged, \(U(x,y)=C\), and take differentiation and find \(-dy/dx\).

$$f(x,y) dx=C dx$$

$$ \frac{\partial f(x,y)}{x}+\frac{\partial f(x,y)}{\partial y}\frac{\partial y}{\partial x}=0 $$

$$\frac{\partial y}{\partial x}=-\frac{\frac{\partial f(x,y)}{\partial x}}{\frac{\partial f(x,y)}{\partial y}}=\frac{MU_x}{MU_y}$$

Therefore,

MRS_{x,y}=-\frac{dy}{dx}=\frac{MU_x}{MU_y}

$$|MRS_{x,y}|=-\frac{dy}{dx}=\frac{MU_x}{MU_y} $$

Example 1

$$U=x^2+y^2$$

$$MRS_{x,y}=\frac{MU_x}{MU_y} =\frac{x}{y}$$

Example 2

$$U=x\cdot y$$

, which is similar as the Cobb-Douglas form but has exponenets zero.

$$MRS_{x,y}=\frac{MU_x}{MU_y} =\frac{y}{x}$$

Example 3

Perfect Substitution: MRS constant
Perfect Complement

MRTS

Marginal Rate of Technical Substitution (MRTS) measures the amount of cost which a specific input can be replaced for another resource of production while maintaining a constant output.

$$MRTS_{K,L}=-\frac{\Delta K}{\Delta L}=-\frac{d K}{d L}=\frac{MP_L}{MP_K}$$

How to derive that?

Recall the Isoquant that is equivalent to the contour line of the output function. MRTS is like the slope of the isoquant line. We let,

$$Q=L^a K^b$$

Then,

$$MP_K=\frac{\partial Q}{\partial K}=b L^A K^{b-1}$$

$$MP_L=\frac{\partial Q}{\partial L}=a L^{a-1}K^b$$

$$MRTS=\frac{ b L^A K^{b-1} }{ a L^{a-1}K^b }=\frac{aK}{bL}$$

In short, MRTS is a similar concept to MRS, but in the output aspect.

Cobb-Douglas Function

Cobb-Douglas Utility function

$$U=C x^a y^b$$

While applying the Cobb-Douglas formed utility function, we are actually proxy the preference of people. (The utility function is like a math representation if individuals’ preference is rational). In the utility function, we are focusing more on the Marginal Rate of Substitution between goods.

$$MRS_{x,y}=\frac{MU_x}{MU_y}=\frac{\partial U/\partial x}{\partial U/\partial y}=\frac{Cax^{a-1}y^b}{Cx^a by^{b-1}}$$

$$MRS_{x,y}=\frac{ay}{bx}$$

P.S. Cobb-Douglas gives the same MRS to CES utility function. While solving the utility maximisation problem, we take partial derivatives to the lagrangian and then solve them. Those steps are similar to calculating the MRS.

The key is that the number or value of the utility function does not matter, but the preference represented by the utility function is more important. Any positive monotonic transformation will not change the preference, such as logarithm, square root, and multiply any positive number.

Exponents Do Not Matter

The powers of the Cobb-Douglas function does not really matter as long as they are in the “correct” ratio. For example,

$$ U_1=Cx^7y^1,\quad and \quad U_2=Cx^{7/8}y^{1/8} $$

$$MRS_1=\frac{7y}{x}\quad and \quad MRS_2=\frac{7y/8}{x/8}=\frac{7y}{x}$$

Therefore, we can find that those two utility functions represent the same preference!

Or we can write \(U_1=(U_2)^8 \cdot C^{-7}\). Both taking exponent and multiplying a positive constant are positive monotonic transformations. Therefore, the powers of Cobb-Douglas do not really matter to represent the preference. (\(U=Cx^a y^{1-a}\) the exponents of the utility function does not have to be sum to one).

$$U=x^a y^b \Leftrightarrow x^{\frac{a}{a+b}}y^{\frac{b}{a+b}}$$

Constant Elasticity of Substitution

CES could be either production or utility function. It provides a clear picture of how producers or consumers choose between different choices (elasticity of substitution).

CES Production

The two factor (capital, labour) CES production function was introduced by Solow and later made popular by Arrow.

$$Q=A\cdot(\alpha K^{-\rho}+(1-\alpha)L^{-\rho})^{-\frac{1}{\rho}}$$

  • \(\alpha\) measures the relative proportion spent across K and L.
  • \(\rho=\frac{\sigma-1}{\sigma}\) is the substitution parameter.
  • \(\sigma=\frac{1}{1-\rho}\) is the elasticity of substitution.

While identical producers maximise their profits and markets get competitive, Marginal Product of Labour and Marginal Product of Capital follow,

$$MP_L=\frac{\partial Q}{\partial L}=w$$

$$MP_K=\frac{\partial Q}{\partial K}=r$$

So we get,

$$ \frac{w}{r}=\frac{1-\alpha}{\alpha}(\frac{K}{L})^{\rho+1} $$

$$\frac{K}{L}=(\frac{\alpha}{1-\alpha}\frac{w}{r})^{\frac{1}{1+\rho}}$$

Here, we get the substitution of K and L is a function of the price, w & r. As we are studying the elasticity of substitution, in other words how W/L is affected by w/r, we take derivatives later. We denote \(V=K/L\), and \(Z=w/r\). Then,

$$V=(\frac{\alpha}{1-\alpha}Z)^{\frac{1}{1+\rho}}$$

The Elasticity of Substitution (the percentage change of K/L in terms of the percentage change of w/r) is,

$$ \sigma=\frac{dV/V}{dZ/Z}=\frac{dV}{dZ}\frac{Z}{V}=\frac{1}{1+\rho} $$

Therefore, we get the elasticity of substitution becomes constant, depending on \(\rho\). The interesting thing happens here.

  • If \(-1<\rho<0\), then \(\sigma>1\).
  • If \(0<\rho<\infty\), then \(\sigma<1\).
  • If \(\rho=0\), then, \(\sigma=1\).

Utility Function

Marginal Rate of Substitution (MRS) measures the substitution rate between two goods while holding the utility constant. The elasticity between X and Y could be defined as the following,

$$ Elasticity=\frac{\%\Delta Y}{\% \Delta X}=\frac{\Delta Y/Y}{\Delta X/X}=\frac{X/Y}{\Delta X/\Delta Y} $$

The elasticity of substitution here is defined as how easy is to substitute between inputs, x or y. In another word, the change in the ratio of the use of two goods w.r.t. the ratio of their marginal price. In the utility function case, we can apply the formula,

$$\sigma=\frac{\Delta ln(X/Y)}{\Delta ln(MRS_{X,Y})}=\frac{\Delta ln(X/Y)}{\Delta ln(U_x/U_y)}= \frac{\Delta ln(X/Y)}{\Delta ln(U_x/U_y)} $$

$$\sigma=\frac{\frac{\Delta(X/Y)}{X/Y}}{\frac{\Delta (p_x/p_y)}{p_x/p_y}}$$

  • \(U_x=\frac{\partial U}{\partial X}=p_x\)
  • \(MRS_{X,Y}=\frac{dy}{dx}=\frac{U_x}{U_y}=p_x/p_y\) marginal price in equilibrium.

In the

$$ u(x,y)=(a x^{\rho}+b y^{\rho})^{1/\rho} $$

$$\sigma=\frac{1}{1-\rho}$$

If \(\rho=1\), then \(\sigma\rightarrow \infty\).

If \(\rho\rightarrow -\infty\), then \(\rho=0\).

Two common choices of CES production function are (1) Walras-Leontief-Harrod-Domar function; and (2) Cobb-Douglas function (P.S. but CES is not perfect, coz sigma always equal one).

As \(\rho=1\), the utility function would be a perfect substitute.

As \(\rho=-1\), the utility function would be pretty similar to the Cobb-Douglas form.

Later, the CES utility function could be applied to calculate the Marshallian demand function and Indirect utility function, and so on. Also, easy to show that the indirect utility function \(U(p_x,p_y,w)\) is homogenous degree of 0.

Reference

Arrow, K.J., Chenery, H.B., Minhas, B.S. and Solow, R.M., 1961. Capital-labor substitution and economic efficiency. The review of Economics and Statistics43(3), pp.225-250.