近期经济观察

中国央行降息 松货币 宽信用 为刺激国内经济,增加信贷,盘活经济,实现年增长目标。

美联储升息 为应对 通胀风险。

双方的双向操作使得中美利差缩小。

US interest rate is relatively more attractive to global investors than CNY. However, in the exchange market, CNY appreciates and the USD depreciates. How does that happen? Why investments do not flow to the U.S. market?

In the following, we consider why money does not escape from the Chinese market. –

1. Regulation

CNY has continued appreciating since 2018, while the spread between CNY and USD converging. That is largely because of the regulation. – 资本管制、外汇市场干预、风险因素

In this case, the real demand and supply of China in the EX market does not flow with the change of interest rate spread.

2. Risks

Investors consider not only profits but also risks. For the profit part, which is about the spread convergence, it does make sense that the US dollar should appreciate. However, for the risk part, we normally under-evaluate the risk of the U.S. market.

Although FRED increases the interest rate, that policy aims to battle hyperinflation ( face crisis) instead of actively controlling unexpected growth (contractionary policy). Therefore, the policy of increase in interest rate would more likely to end up with higher risks, which are investors does not want to face.

The Chinese policy of decreasing interest rates might also aim to face the crisis. That is hard to evaluate which part risks dominate.

Other Facts

U.S. aims to 1. battle with inflation 2. attract money to flow from EU and Emerging market back into U.S. market.

China is facing severe international conditions as well. See news and reports e.g. economists 6th March.