中国国际金融协会年会

2022 世界经济与中国 – 聚焦全球经济金融体系的未来

– 中国银行总行 2021.12.07

刘连舸 （中行行长）

全球经济复苏与产业链。G20国家经济已复苏，贸易水平超疫情前。但是流动性差，经济体脆弱fragile，所以需要全球产业链网络合作深化。区域间多边贸易增加 => 经济体在全球产业链中获利。

但是2008 crisis及covid-19使全球化脚步放缓。全球Tariff以及贸易保护使得全球化合作减缓。

Post-Covid展望：

全球产业链合作 <= 全球化趋势。原因：

1. 应对stagflation
2. 内在动力
3. 生产要素及技术进步融合
4. 深化区域合作（区域自贸合作）

仍存在的问题

1. Covid带来的Uncertainty i.e. Omicron
2. 意识形态对抗 i.e. US 单边主义+保护主义 （如芯片行业）
3. 传统经贸规则无法跟上Green Finance的步伐

刘明康 （原银监会主席）

应对疫情中的国际金融

疫情影响：

1. Death & Infection
2. Pandemic is repetitive i.e. 预计本年增长6%不足，实际预计5%
3. 股市\(downarrow\)，油价\(downarrow\)，流动性\(downarrow\)，最终导致金融市场unfunctional金融市场运作失效

To face the Covid

1. CB conduct 1. QE; 2. Negative or zero interest rate.
2. Fed & Treasury stimulate the economy by releasing extra liquidity救市
3. Extra liquidity results in negative growth of Net worth of assets 超额流动性导致资产净值减少
4. 企业融资成本下降
5. 2008 crisis后 CB+Gov合作的模式形成

未来的五个问题

• Problem 1: Future: Inflation becomes a problem in the future 10 years. Problems:

• Problem 2: 全球供应链重塑

1. Supply chain interruption呈现两种形式。1. short-run 阶段性，如：集装箱缺少及司机短缺。2. Structural & Permanent 永久性及结构性，如：三星、LG、微软、台积电大笔资金重塑供应链。（我国chips & semi-conduct有供应链重塑及合作需求）
2. 要解决数据（大数据方向）渠道问题。Balance企业数据共享+隐私保护
3. 国际金融要跟上Supply Chain Resilience的步伐。用 多节点多个供应链 替代 单个供应链的模式。打破Just-in-time零库存以降低储存成本的经营模式（日本）
4. 各国需要深化改革：海关控制及Tariff限制。

• Problem 3: 高新科技带来的变化

1. i.e. 5G带来工业+通讯互联的同时 需要金融支持1. Cyber Security. 2. Risk control.
2. Creative Construction. 国际大型制药公司进行公司拆分 1.避免臃肿; 2.Specialist & focus on
3. 同时对于高新+数据的监管需要跟上（如限制ratio标准）

• Problem 4: 研究国际金融如何服务绿色发展

1. Target目标：Net of zero carbon, Needs trillion of dollors supports per year.
2. 通过CCER（碳交易平台）+碳捕捉+碳储存 技术协助解决net zero 的目标
3. 国际交流协作

• Problem 5: 国际资产: 1. 重估revaluation; 2. 重组restructure; 3. 重分配reallocation

1. 目前投资考虑两个维度：宏观+微观。但是现在可能需要考虑第三个点：对Index Fallacy的纠正。纠正经济金融指数带来的谬误。
2. 周期转变 （新经济 v.s. 旧经济）、氢能源的 产->利->用 导致对传统供应链的冲击
3. 银行：用fin-tech+big data应对新经济模式的冲击

五个时代的呼唤

1. 当下 & 今后的时机+抱负
2. Face New tech
3. regulation & cooperation
4. ESG + CSR
5. Human Development

Joseph Stiglitz (2001 Nobel Prize winner)

About the Post-Pandemic

• Uncertainty
• Global Cooperation (Prof. Stiglitz is upset about the global cooperation): unable to supply vaccine, cannot egt the low cost of production
• Country’s Government conduct government purchases (about 25% U.S. GDP), But developing countries and emerging markets do not have ability of finance the economy recovery by “G”.

1. SDR of CB: about to move money from CB to Treasury
2. Make funds recyclable
3. Problems of debts. We nned deep or restructure and cooperate between private and public sectors to solve the problems of extra debts.

• Climate Risks

1. Weather uncertainty. Extreme weather.
2. Transformation to neclear energy.
3. Maket not works well. Asset price changes as well.

• Systematic Consequence.

1. Wrong valuation of financial sectors
2. Banks need to ensure not over-exposure to value risks
3. Gov needs to response by policy that not allow risks to be tranfered to private sectors. i.e. ensure all mortgages are green mortgage.
4. Financial Secors commisions to allocate.
5. Companies also need to allocate and disclose financial risks.

• China – Debt Finance + Real Estate

The economy relies highly on real estate, so highly exposed to debts problems. Therefore, alternative modes can be chosen.

1. more equity finance than debt finance. However, equity finance needs more information, and then better regulation. Equity based finance is better to absorb risks.
2. Focus on more small business lending. Use small business loan to stimulate the economy.
3. More public investment. Private sectores are polluted (driven by tendency of profitability). Thus, public sectors need to work and help movement from rural to city and further make city better. (common prosperity).
4. A transformation to service dominant mode.
5. Public investment is the engine of economy.

A country with rapid tranformation would be the winner.

朱民 （清华大学国家金融研究院院长，前IMF副总裁，央行副行长，中行副行长）

2022通胀之剑+央行的挑战

p.s. 参考Dalio经济weather取决于1. 经济增长; 2. 通胀。

• Facts:

1. 通胀呈现国际国与国之间不同，国内产业间不同的趋势。
2. 全球：大宗商品价格上升 PPI上升，能源价格上升. PPI+CPI剪刀差导致企业利润被严重压缩。

• 问题：通胀，暂时性 or 持久性？— Ideas：持久性

1. Demand side: 需求持续上升，由于Fiscal & Monetary Policy的传递最终传向demand side
2. Supply side: cannot be stable coz covid continues + fluctuations of econ
3. 大宗商品价格上升 （主要 油+能源+稀有金属），价格上升的来源为：1. supply structure changes；2. Targets of carbon neturality
4. Labour Market： 劳动力参与率低 low skill workers 导致unemployment。但是demand高，i.e. 卡车司机+港口集装箱问题。 最终导致low skill workers wage 上升 => 导致 all wages 上升。
5. Real Estate Price 上升。

综上导致persistent increase in inflation。

• 央行对通胀的政策：Fed 提前加息。但是U.S. stock market 的tail risks 提升。

Summary: structural inflation becomes persistent because both supply and demand sides changes. Fed are less affected to the inflation.

• Future

U.S. debts 提升 interest rate下降 => achieve a balance。 但是当Fed要提高 interest rate收缩经济时，U.S. unable to pay back debts because of higher cost of interest payment. 最终导致 interest 难以提升的问题。

未来可能出现 1. 高inflation；2. 高interest rate；3. 高debt。但 低economic growth的情况。

李扬 （国家金融与发展实验室理事长）

近期（2021.12.6）政治局会议结束 -> 经济局会议

• 1. 中国经济增长率下行

1. 产出缺口
2. 投资减少
3. 消费减少 – 分配问题：收入一次分配在 公共+居民 存在不合理。需要增加居民收入

• 2. 物价 （通胀）

中国CPI PPI在2012年已分道扬镳，因为两者对应的产业不同。

1. CPI：电商，互联网，物流，etc 消费品市场是有效市场 高度竞争
2. PPI：上游呈现寡头垄断的趋势

CPI & PPI 无直接传导机制，因为两市场分离。Friedman words “inflation is everywhere a monetary phenomenon” 在中国不适用，因为两市场分离，且市场不是有效市场（不竞争）。

• 3. 对外部门

净出口大幅支撑GDP。但是远期未来 必须要提振 内循环 – 双循环机制。

• 4. 就业

就业出现结构性问题 Unemployment多存在于20-25岁劳动力中。问题：

1. 创业对就业的边际带动能力。i.e. 2015年一个市场主体创造1.9个人就业，但是2020年仅0.5个。（可能会有measurement error2015年统计数据真实性问题。若无，则）说明边际创造就业能力差。且需要数据考量带动的是何种就业（地摊or企业）。
2. 劳动力市场面临多重失衡+压力

• 5. 中国债务+杠杆率

1. Firms: 企业去杠杆 => 导致问题：企业不借钱+不经营。生产意愿下降。矛盾点：杠杆率大=>风险大；杠杆率小=>生产意愿小
2. Households: 不愿意通过borrowing增加消费。

Summary：仅调整资产负债表让其好看（low risk），但是同时降低了“意愿”带来了灾难性后果！

Public：财政政策态度消极，地方杠杆率+增长率同时下降。 尽管市场说“紧信用，款货币”，但是反映到终端生产者or消费者最终仍然是无支持效果（money 仍在金融体系中流转，因为没有优质资产投资及放贷）。所以从结果考虑是紧缩的货币政策。

• 6. 银行要找的项目，资金出口：

已从之前 大企业+房地产 的模式转向 小企业+小微企业 的模式。但是此模式的优质资产也即将耗尽。=> 要开辟新的路径 去实现 金融服务实体经济。

但是对于小企业来说，借钱融资的 财务成本高=> 实体部门less profitable，因为对小企业放贷的利率过高。

• 7. 流通成本高
• 8. 全要素生产率水平有待提高

• 综上得到结论：

1. 由于之前“实际”monetary policy紧，=> 可以将其实际宽松，刺激经济发展 => 空间大
2. 11.22发文帮助小企业，说明此前没有做好。未来支持小企业对经济发展空间大。原因： Adv:1. 小企业服务大企业；2.小企业帮助就业。Disadv：缺少优质小企业（不能多为仅带来0.5个就业的企业）。
3. 当前准备金率过高 8.4%，世界他国多为0%准备金时代及趋势 => 空间大

Eric Maskin （2007 Nobel Prize winner）

Mechanism Design: start with the outcomes, then work backward to find what mechanism can create that outcomes.

E.G. Seperate a cake to two kids. Aims to make those kids think they get same size. Ideal way to do so is halve the cake. However, kids may not consider sizes are same. We the mechanism design does is 1. as one kid to cut, and then 2. ask the other kid to choose a piece.

Two Realistic Problems can be solved by mechansim design.

• 1. Supply Chain Disruption: Economy is complex that there are goods and inputs, and producers get multi-sources.

Problems: producer does not seek multi-sources, coz they would prefer protect itself & its downstream by using single source supply chain. => supply side market is inefficient.

Solve: Government conduct i.e. 1. government subsidies to achieve multi-sources; 2. government encourage producers through other ways.

By government is the mechanism

• Climate changes: Human emission gas into atmosphere. A firm that uses coal to generate electicity has no incentives to switch to clean energy, coz 1. high cost of tranformation; 2. CO2 has less effects on that certain firm.

Solution: conduct carbon tax. 1. reduce carbon uses; 2. high cost of coal encourage firms to switch to clean power.

Carbon Tax is the mechanism

• Chinese Government did good:

1. carbon trade system (,which is similar to carbon tax). Also, what banks can do higher rate for high carbon emission firms (my simple idea).
2. ban Cryptocurrency (加密货币). Cryptocurrency would reduce the effects of monetary policy, coz people would instead use Cryptocurrency.

陆磊 （国家外汇管理局副局长）

PPI 上涨来自 supply shocks，上游利润上升，CPI上涨来自demand shocks，下游利润下降（利润被上游收割）。

高质量发展： 工具+动力

工具：

1. 需求侧：宏观调控需要continuous & persistent & transparent
2. 供给侧：增强competitivity，竞争性由technology带来。
3. 结构：优化分配（见李扬）。
4. Green Finance。

动力：

1. 改革创新 – 灵活有效的fiscal policy
2. 发展源泉激励
3. Focus on also the liquidity risk (, which exceeds the credit risks already)

Jeffrey Sachs

In the long-term future, there is a fundamental changes of the realtionship between China and U.S.. Need strengthen the cooperation.

1. At the end of North Atlantic dominant, Asia takes doninant instead. Geographic driven by economic divergence,
2. Environmental Crisis – Fragile ecosystem
3. Demographic changes. Massive urbanisation.
4. Common prospertiy – demand for social inclusion.
5. Smart machines and digital socity
6. Wealth and well-being. How to shift the focus from wealth to well-being.

All countries, governments need to consider the global environment regulation goal.

Smart chiens and technology declines labour demands => reallocation of wealth (conflicts exist that the wealthy people rejects to pay higher tax)