- 当前报道表面Omicron杀伤力较弱。结合其传染力强的特点，有可能帮助全球实现群体免疫。由此US市场普遍对pandemic的预期减弱。
- 目前Fed政策急转向收紧流动性，减少印钞并加息。市场普遍认为是因为目前美国高通胀。CPI创31年新高（此前是oil crisis）。但是potential reason是，美国就业市场以近饱和，近full employment。继续宽流动性刺激就业会导致hyperinflation。
可以看到labour force participant rate underwent a continuous decrease since 2000. It dropped to the bottom during the pandemic in April 2020 and recovered with the stimulation of public sectors’ policy. However, if taking data before the pandemic, and estimating the decreasing trend (i.e. regress labour force participation rate on time), the forecasted value till current period is about the current value.
That finding implies the labour market has already recovered to the pre-pandemic level. The low level of the labour force participation rate might be that older people do not want to participate in the labour market again and waiting to retire. This implication is also backed by the fact of relatively low level of the unemployment rate.
P.S. there is a negative correlation between the unemployment rate and the federal fund rate. The federal fund rate hikes while the unemployment rate decreases. I would consider that Fed conducts contractionary monetary policy while the economy is close to full employment, controlling the economy not to be overheated.
Based on that, we can find that the Fed calling back the liquidity by increasing interest rate is reasonable. Predict that the Fed would hold a higher federal fund rate, decreasing liquidity and absorbing capital flowing back to the U.S.
Let’s think TAPER and federal fund rate increase together. With an increase in the interest rate in the U.S., money would pour into the U.S. pursuing higher interest rate payments. People would therefore sell assets from other countries for money, resulting in a decrease in the capital market.