Global Market
The world economy has changed a lot since March when the Fed start to control the Inflation rate by increasing the federal fund rate, 4 times already.
The Global Market: The 4th FOMC meeting ended with a 75 bp FFR increase.
The disclosure of several giant firms’ interim statements helped recover the confidence in the US market. Powell states that the economy is not in a recession, and inflation did decrease to a certain extent, so the tight monetary policy did achieve a bit. The US market is at a high FFR rate level already, and the Inflation data start to go down, with the downward movement of crude oil prices. Therefore, the market started to expect a mild movement in the short future.
The foreign market underwent also some “magic” movement. Due to the hike in the US interest rate, money and capital flowed to the US market, appreciating the USD relative to other currencies. EURO went down to even close to one to one, w.r.t. USD. GBP and CNY depreciated to a large degree as well.
中国市场
此前提到，在Fed加息进程中，各国央行货币政策的独立性收到了压缩。与Fed背道而驰意味着，美国高利率会吸引capital/money向美国外流，从而使domestic country的资本被US榨取。
我国强外汇管制一定程度上削弱了Fed加息，对中国CB独立性的冲击。但是自2022年4月经济情况大幅衰弱，市场预期因上海疫情爆发达到极低点。当时我国CB为了刺激经济，降息放水，通过地方财政债务增加，为地方政府提杠杆（隐形&&||显性），以刺激我国经济。当时我国CB的操作明显与Fed背道而驰，在USD dominates的市场情况下，此番操作显然会导致资本外逃。因此我国CB的monetary policy空间有限。
8月中旬，7月份经济数据公布，其中包括社融数据。社融数据大幅低于预期，同比环比皆显著低。主要因我国CB的刺激政策在6月底经济预期反弹后逐渐退出。同时，各大金融机构半年指标周期结束，银行大幅放款的进程周期性结束。总的来说，7月数据显著低于预期是因为：原因一，社融数据于是6月底社融达到高点，银行向企业放款的能力达到一定极限，因此至9月均难以有显著改善（但11月/12月年底指标仍需达成，所以年底仍有数据增加的空间）；原因二，政策刺激退出。政策刺激的推出是为了保证1. 我国CB货币政策还有一定的空间，2. 防止市场bubble。
目前真实市场情况，小微企业及小微经营主体接连倒闭，CB带来的流动性仍然无法有效投入到民营企业中（央企国企的确显著获得了流动性支持）。经济内循环难以有效建立，主要因为aggregate demand难以得到刺激。昨日8.15，CB开始再次通过货币刺激市场流动性，开始降MLF。
Chinese Econ is running into trouble, a bit pessimistic. There seems a systematic and structural problem that low aggregate demands in the market.
Key Takeaway:
- Aggregate demand behaviours are acyclical, affecting inflation, and thus the policy makers’ target.
- Chinese Market move behind the expectation, or I would say in other ways. Prob 1: The market has been generating wrong expectations and not quickly adjusting. Prob 2: In a relatively stable market, Institutional Players herd to manipulate prices to a certain degree.
- I guess the market has recognised that if there are no effectively systematical changes, the market won’t get better in the long run.
- 双循环中，内循环仍不畅通，可能原因1.早年间供给侧改革并无法刺激消费者的消费观念；2.经济理论角度，收入及预期低，无法带来消费。进出口拉动国内经济。
- 国内多重风险，经济，国际间关系，包括社会（政治人物社会发言张某等）等为社会稳定带来负面影响。