- FX: The impacts on US dollar are complicated. On one hand, the US economy is underwent rate cut before the election, aiming to help the economic growth. On the other hand, Trump’s policy (high tariffs and inflationary wages policies) would result in higher inflation, so that Fed might be pressure to rise rate against the greater price increase. The US dollar index would be largely affected by the above mentioned polices.
Trump states that the US trade deficits have reached to over $1 trillion, implying the imbalance trade condition. The monetary department (Fed) might depreciate US dollar, through which US exports might be accelerated. To make US dollar depreciate, FFR might go downward.
However, The independence of Fed matters. As Fed’s goal might diverge from Trump’s policy, Jerome Powell’s insight of fighting inflation might not be coincident with the campaign strategy. If wages rise, pushing up inflation, Fed would increase rate again.
In sum, there is an uncertainty on FX changes. The majority of the market consider Trump’s policy would outperform, so USD appreciates after election.
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Commodity:
- Gold: As USD appreciates, gold price decrease.
- Metals: Coppers might experience uncertainty. USD appreciates, commodity price shall decrease. However, the infrastructure plan increase the demand of related commodities as well such as coppers. Thus, the price change of coppers are uncertain.
- Energies: similar to metals. Two-way effects.
- Cryptos: Simple logic. Boosting cryptos.
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Stocks: tax cuts definitely benefit firms. Stock price raises.
- Bonds: money flows to stocks, less demand on bonds. Thus, bond price decreases, and yield increases.