Category: Ideas

Unemployment Data in the U.S. Labour Market

The statistical data of unemployment rate released last week. 3.5% in September 2022, another lowest level even in history.

The U.S. economy is encountering still hgih level of inflation. To fight the inflation, one of the target of the Fed, the Federal Fund Rate has already been increase to about 3% to 3.25% in order to slow down the economy. However, the unemployment data shows the economy is seemingly continuously heating.

There several reasons explain the over-heated labour market.

  1. Individuals have already overcome the pandemic, and the consumption, especially service, are in high demands. There is even an overshooting of demands for labours.
  2. Many people leave the labour market, and are classified as distressed workers who are not included in the calculation of unemployment rate.
  3. Immigrant policy have changed since the Trump. To increase the employment rate for those “domestic” U.S. citizens, the immigrant policy has been not that friendly. Less low-cost labours inputed into the U.S. economy drives a gap of workers.

The low unemployment rate provides the Fed another inspiration of QT.

After QE

Why QE ?

By QE, the Fed increased the money supply to stimulate the aggregate demand in 2020 and 2021.

$$ Y=C+I+G+NX $$

By QE, more money were dumped into the economy. Two mainly used methods are (1) helicopter drops, and (2) banks/firms repo and CB reverse repo.

What happens after QE ?

  • 1. Individuals got the more money in hands (mainly from Helicopter Drops in 2020) — Consumption increased. In the U.S., people who had SSN and were taxed a year before a certain time point were assured an opportunity of helicopter drops. Those money were highly likely ( and it really is) to transform to real demands in the market, because of the consumption habit in the U.S.

The Fed printed extra money and dumped into the economy. People spent those extra money to buy goods and service. Less Goods and Services were produced domestically in the U.S., while most of them were imported from Mexico, India, Russia, China, Mideast, etc. That is what I discussed before. The U.S. printed money (, which are worthless), and use “nothing” to reap goods and services from all over the world.

The above is one fact. Another is that there are still too much of money in the economy. Too much money chased too little goods. Like Milton Fridman said “Inflation is nothing but a monetary phenomenon”. There were no enough outputs (aggregate supply) to meet the increase in aggregate demand resulted from QE, then inflation surged.

  • 2. Increase in supply of money dragged the interest rate down and thus reduced the financial cost for firms. Investment increased. This case is a bit different. In China, the CB conducted also QE to stimulate the economy especially in the current situation. However, the CB’s conduction is mainly through the Banking System. In this case, money are mainly poured into firms through loans not to individuals. Individuals are hardly able to get low-cost money because on the one hand them may not have enough pledges, and on the other hand people are fear to invest in the real estate, coz the real estate bubbles are in the edge of collapse although the gov is trying to keep the mkt stable.

Pros and Cons are there. Advantages are (1) firms that got the low-cost money are most likely state owned firms. In this case, there are “relative high probability” of safety. (2) firms encounter low financial cost and could have direct impact on infrastructures. Disadvantages are also that (1) money could not be directly given to individuals, no real happiness or utility increase for those family. Family based businesses are still suffering the plunges in demands and undergo bankruptcy. (2) too much money chase too little high-quality assets that can have potential positive expected return or payoffs. Money circulates in the economy, and costs circulates as well to increase. On the one hand there is low efficiency, on the other hand extra money does not contribute to stimulate the economy. Financial System discoodinates.

近期经济观察 – FX rate

USD keeps appreciated after the release of interest rate increase by FOMC on Wednesday last week. The serious attitude from the Fed made the markets adjust their expectation for the interest rate level at the end of this year to be around 4.00% – 4.50% (previous expectation is around 4%). The increase of expectation turned down the equity market in a large percentage.

FX rate becomes also dramatic. The most recent available US dollar index went to be 125 on 16th September 2022. The data after the FOMC will be released this week, and let’s see how the meeting affects the US dollar Index last week.

Clearly, the increase of the USD index is caused by the increase in the US interest rate. USD appreciated are due to not only investors are chasing higher interest rate gains in the US, but also the liquidity gap in USD.

In one of my previous study, I discussed that the Fed keeps QE and QT during the economic cycles to squeeze resources and capitals from all over the world. That results in the magic economic phenomenon in the US currently that high inflation from previous QE and helicopter drops, high interest rate from the Fed, and still very low level of unemployment rate.

  • Could the inflation and high interest rate continue? Maybe Yes.
  • Could the low unemployment rate continue? Maybe No.

China is facing a problem in the domestic market. The gov and CB are struggling with the domestic economy and the foreign exchange. The real estate market seems more vulnerable and more volatile so that CB scarifies the relatively constant FX target, to still hold a low level of interest rate to stimulate investment and domestic mkt.

However, we seem cannot get an obvious react in the short run, the fundamentals still have none improvement. The non-optimistic economic environment reinforces the depreciation of CNY, as I discussed in previous blogs that the growth and prosperity of an economy is another important aspect affecting the FX rate.

Based on above illustrations, I may expect that USD would keep appreciating. Also, the appreciation seems won’t stop if there is not a clear indication of changes in the Fed’s Policy. However, USD appreciation drives capital flowing to the US market, and that is clearly not what every sovereign countries want, because the capital accumulation is moving the US. How could the progress stop? What can we do?

日本和韩国-低生育率的两个模版

经济发展潜力中，不可或缺的就是相对年轻的人口结构，我国的发展模式也是摸着石头过河，参考各个经济体的发展经验，从而试验出最适合我们发展的路线。东亚更是在战后成为全球发展最快的经济区域，其中我国的经济发展还相对靠后一些，最具代表性的是日本、韩国以及新加坡，也是少数跨越中等收入陷阱进入发达国家行列的经济体，日本迅速成为世界第二大经济体，韩国创造了著名的汉江奇迹，并且创造了发展中国经济体在此阶段的增长记录，改开后的很多政策都能看到这些经济体发展时期的影子。人口结构在东亚发展中也比较特殊，经济高增长时期往往是人口结构相对年轻的时候，而深度老龄化与少子化又比其他区域也更严峻，甚至出现了未富先老的问题，日本和韩国对待人口问题的政策差异很大，结果数据上也差异很大，为后来的经济体提供了两个参考模板。

1. 东亚经济奇迹与人口红利

第二次世界大战以后，世界格局洗牌，但东亚依旧很难摆脱贫穷落后的标签，日本虽然具有工业体系，身为法西斯和战败国被美军占领，当时也有戏称麦克阿瑟是日本真正的天皇。东亚之后便集中出现了多个经济体进入高速的发展阶段，其中以体量和增速划分，日本处于经济增长的第一梯队，凭借着工业化水平和出口导向，迅速实现了工业化到民用商品化的转化，全球范围内都能看到日本商品的影子，三四十年的发展便坐上世界第二大经济体的为主。第二梯队则是以韩国、我国台湾、我国香港、新加坡为代表的高增长经济体，俗称为亚洲四小龙，韩国在1965~1989年平均经济增速中，与新加坡共同领衔全球最高的7%的增速，根据70法则，每十年经济翻一番，韩国的经济奇迹也被称为汉江奇迹。第三梯队则是我国大陆、东南亚一些欠发挥国家为代表的经济体。以1965~1989年期间的经济数据，全球经济增长前十的国家和地区，除了瑞士、埃及加拿大以外的七个经济区域都在东亚。年平均增长率超过4%的12个经济区域，东亚占9个，筑起了东亚奇迹。

当然90年代以后，日本韩国纷纷深陷经济金融危机，但东亚奇迹并没有结束，而是一个新的开始，接过高速发展旗帜的则是我们经济体。我国市场经济虽然起步晚，但凭借着综合优势，比如基础工业化既有苏联老大哥的协助，又有中美蜜月期美国的协助，结合巨大的高性价比人口红利释放，尤其是60后婴儿潮、80后婴儿潮。快速的坐稳世界第一大制造业产能国、稳居世界第二大经济体以及世界第一大进出口国，超过韩国创造的7%发展奇迹，改革开放后维持了40年平均9.7%的增速，单独支撑了一个经济奇迹，至于最近十几年跟着玩金融信贷扩张，透支经济未来以及政策推高的资产泡沫，那是另外一个故事了，十几亿人温饱脱贫是举世无双的经济成就。

结合东亚人口稠密，资源有限，竞争激烈，可能还有传统文化的影响，盛产高性价比劳动力，这对任何资本都是一座金山，对内可以支撑发展的原始积累，对外是吸引国际资本和产业的筹码，资本都是逐利的。不管是我国、日本、韩国，经济高速增长时期都离不开一个支撑，那就是相对年轻的人口结构，我国的62年以后每年约2500万的婴儿潮，韩国1955~1963年的710万婴儿潮，日本的战后和平时期3年超过800万的婴儿潮，之后都成为了经济发展的重要力量，现在也被称为人口红利。人口结构相对年轻，10个人8个劳动力，与10个人4个劳动力，经济发展潜力当然不同。有人总说我国人口多，不需要鼓励生育，典型的只看体量不看结构，消耗的人大于产出的人，压力都到了后来者头上，结果就是恶性循环。

日本与韩国人口问题的政策差异

高速的工业化，城镇化以及平均受教育水平都会降低人口出生率，但根据全球的发展趋势，这三项都很难逆转。政策干预生育率往往只能让生育率下降减速，最好的结果是稳住不继续下降，而这些政策的核心是增加公共服务，以及宏观资源向年轻群体倾斜。

我们先回顾一下日本模式，核心政府不断增加负债来维持社会的公共服务支出，进而弥补企业和居民部门信贷和消费收缩带来的问题，当然这种公共服务也包括对生育环节的扶持。这个趋势是从90年代日本资产泡沫破裂以后开始的，日本模式的好处是经济不至于崩地彻底，也并没有出现更大范围的失业和金融停摆。代价则是居高不下的政府负债率，政府杠杆主要经济体中独树一帜，美国经常提高政府负债上限至今也是望尘莫及。

之后还有了所谓的安倍经济学，其三板斧分别是：更宽松的货币政策、更灵活的财政政策以及结构性改革。前两个比较突出，但并没有新的东西，安倍经济学是把日本模式玩到了极致，用更快速的给政府加杠杆的方式，再配合灵活的财政政策给市场输血，刺激经济热度，尤其是给居民输血，经济状况好坏都需要维持居民的公共福利开销。当然代价也是非常明显的，安培经济学把兴奋剂翻一倍，效果立竿见影但持续时间很短，之后又恢复到了极低增长和负利率之中，更快速的积累了尾大不掉的政府杠杆，让后来日本货币政策几乎失去了选择的余地，只能在无限宽松中一条路走到黑，美联储加息周期中，美元兑日元一年不到的十年站上140的位置，日元一年不到的时间贬值25%。

日本政府加杠杆减低居民压力的方式，隐藏的一个利好数据则是总和生育率，90年代资产泡沫破裂前后的总和生育率在1.5左右，截止2021年的数据，日本的综合生育率为1.34，三十年降低了约0.16的程度。此外，日本还是全球人均寿命最高的经济体，这也验证了一个结论，虽然日本模式代价很大，但毕竟玩了三十年。既然做不动分配改革，政府加杠杆总好过迫使居民加杠杆。日本模式只要还能维系一天，这种公共服务和生育率预计就还能维持一天，直至日本模式玩崩为止，或者说，即使日本模式今天崩溃，那不也续了30年的命么，居民享受了三十年的高公共服务，人生也没有几个三十年，很难说不值。

而韩国则是另一个发达国家的极端，以10%左右的公共福利占GDP的比重在发达国家中稳坐倒数第一的宝座，对内要喂饱财阀势力，对外要喂饱国际资本。以前政府只需要与财阀斗争，97年亚洲金融危机放开了外资控股，现在的三星现代等大企业都有大量的外资控股，财阀和国际资本形成利益捆绑，让本就没有军事主权的国家，根本无法对这些既得利益者下手，强人如文在寅也并没有触及这些分利集团的核心，世袭罔替的大小财阀根据推算可以占到韩国GDP的9成以上，预计不是和平方式可以撼动的。

居民看不到希望，高压下也没有讨价还价的资本，这种经济发展更多的是钝刀杀人。既没有暴力，也没有明面的掠夺，但就是中下层逐渐成为财阀和买办利益的牺牲品。居民部门负债占GDP比值超过100%，也是2008年全球金融危机之后独一档的存在。虽然韩国公共福利占GDP的比重逐年增加，却依旧维持在10%水平。相比于经合组织的其他发达国家的30%左右仍有巨大的差异，常年处于垫底的水平。既得利益者对居民的高压掠夺，且极其吝啬的公平服务，不仅是世界上第一个突破1的经济体。还在不断的刷新着自己的记录，2021年更是把世界的下限拉低到0.81，成为全球和平时期最可能把自己民族搞绝种的经济体。

总结起来：东亚奇迹有他的进步性，但也有很多问题，依靠人口红利和快速的工业化崛起，也必将因为工业化后，人口红利老去进入深度的老龄化。日本模式和韩国模式，必将成为东亚其他后来发展经济体必要摸的石头，这里都可以归入到系列文章提到的上中下三策：上策分配改革，调节财富结构，出清既得利益者；中策政府部门负债维持公共支出，保障居民的社会福利和生活质量；下策则是把成本都压到居民头上，居民不断加杠杆为各个环节提供利益。

日本模式可以归入到中策，韩国模式则可以近似归入到下策。之所以用近似，是因为韩国模式也未必是坏的结果，韩国分配再烂，也已经进入了高收入国家行列，有大量的高附加值市场占比。东亚的其他经济体如果再不提前做分配改革计划的上策，又不愿意政府负债来维持公共支出和居民福利，一味的给居民加杠杆来加剧财富结构畸形的下策，结果只会比韩国更惨，更低的生育率，深度老龄化后的老无所依问题，社会的僵化和阶层固化，都将是不可抗拒但又可以预期的结果。

Ref

文章全文摘自王克单出处：https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/7d21-hVYi2a3KyllR44o9Q

财务造假分析 – 大坑

财务造假的动机

  1. 避免ST
  2. 有融资需求，让报表好看
  3. 完成业绩对赌协议
  4. 个人利益

造假的手段

  1. 虚增收入 by 虚构客户 供应商，循环交易
  2. 虚增收入 by 无中生有，遭假合同 流水
  3. 虚增收入 by 提前确认收入（权责发生制 提前确认）
  4. 虚减费用 by 删除账目。 导致lia和exp同减少
  5. 虚减费用 by 会计政策变更，coz 不计提坏账等
  6. 虚减费用 by 跨周期确认费用 以调整利润

识别

  • 1. Gross Profit Margin

通过虚增利润、虚减费用等方法会造成 Gross Profit Margin陡增。因为Rev 虚增时 COGS不变；同理COGS虚减时， Rev不变 ==> 导致GPM陡增。

因此GPM跨时间周期中大幅波动；GPM 显著高于同业 等情况需要引起重视。

  • 2. Inventory Turnover 与 经营情况不符。

正常企业经营，Rev COGS高是由于卖货多，所以 Inv Turnover 增加，意味着企业运营能力提高，会带来 Rev COGS提高，会带来 NI提高。

但是，若Inv Turnover 减少，同时Rev增加，需要引起重视。有可能是企业，虚增业务导致Rev增加，而实际并未有业务发生，所以Inv不变，所以Inv Turnover不变。

  • 3. CF表

CFO与NI的关系。 若NI常年未能转化成Cash，说明企业有巨多A/R，此部分A/R很可能是虚增的：Dr. A/R; Cr.Rev 为了虚增Rev。

  • 4. Others

如企业账上有巨多Cash，还要融资。等不正常行为。

Reference

大公国际-财务造假手段识别与分析Download

意识形态的思考

中美意识形态带来机构体系运行模式的不同。

我国 中央集权，部委及银行为中央效力。 e.g. 央行担任政府的银行的职能

US 三权分立：1. 行政机关：总统+内阁； 立法机关：参议院；3. 司法：最高法院。法律成文需要总统提案，参议院通过。&& Fed 和 gov独立。

意识形态的区别本无对错，都是控制社会主体有效运行的方式。

但是意识形态之间有区别：

  1. 中央集权的形态有助于上对下的管理，集中统一控制管理。但是会面临公平与效率的平衡：1. 指令有对错，取决于上层的能力和目的。2. 指令在传达向下时会浪费大量社会资源。3. 需要社会整体服从，分支的声音和思想会造成更大的效率浪费。4. 依托高层的信誉和下层的服从，需要大量的“服从”教育，减少异端思想，提高巩固稳定思想或没有思想。本质上看是基于管理的平衡和稳定。
  2. 分立的形态使得社会有自主的思想。基于社会主体max utility的假设，促进社会竞争，让社会自己达成动态均衡状态。但是同样会有以下问题：1. 社会不平等的现象必然会发生，因为意识形态本质上是在鼓励效率最大化，同时一定程度的放弃公平，所以不平等的到默许。2. 难以有social planner角色出现。3. dynamic equilibrium的体系可能会受极端冲击而崩塌。本质上是社会自我调节追求效率达到的平衡。

重复我的观点，意识形态本无对错，或者说就目前的社会研究难以分清对错。目前的国际矛盾也不是来源于意识形态的差异，而是来源于增长带来的对地位和利益的威胁。

虽然意识形态无对错，但是意识形态间的跳转意味着巨量的成本、摩擦、与体系机构等更新换代，同时还受制于历史文化因素考虑，意识形态无法跳转。因此，坚守自己所处的环境的意识形态，是为社会进步作出的最好的努力。

在我国，维持中央集权的意识形态是维持中国发展有效的方式，可以有自己的思想，但是不要制造发布意识形态间跳转的言论。我作为一个中国人，我坚定的热爱我的祖国，争取为我国发展作出贡献。

华商 高兵 经济研判

报告期内基金投资策略和运作分析

2022年我国经济面临的下行压力比较大，两会政府工作报告提出了5.5%左右的经济增长目标，要实现这个目标需要通过新老基建持续发力，地产政策的逐步放松来实现。稳增长的方向在一季度比较好的受到市场的追捧，而“新半军”方向外部受到俄乌冲突导致的供应链干扰以及大宗商品上涨带来的通胀压力，内部受到国内不断散发的疫情管控导致的企业停产和物流中断的干扰。

进入二季度以来国内受到了来自上海、吉林等地城市爆发的疫情导致诸多行业尤其是汽车制造业受到停产停工的影响，以及消费场景的缺失。市场也经历了较大幅度的回撤。经历长达1~2个月的努力，国内疫情逐步得到控制，从4月中下旬逐步开启了复产复工和消费复苏的道路。新能源汽车、汽车零部件、光伏以及消费等行业也逐步走出了底部，迎来了一波较强的预期修复，不少品种不仅回到前期高点，甚至创了历史新高。

上半年基金的主要配置方向聚焦在“复产复工+消费复苏”。复产复工围绕新能源汽车、汽车整车和零部件、光伏以及大众消费，同样受益于疫情控制好转后的医疗服务（眼科、医美等）我们也进行了重点布局。同时本基金也配置了半导体和军工领域的一些阿尔法属性较强的次新股。在新能源的方向，我们在持续做各种持仓品种的优化，尽最大可能选择瑕疵和干扰最小的细分赛道以及个股。同时我们也引入了部分弹性更大的二三线品种的研究和布局，比如新能源汽车细分领域和汽车零部件领域的新进入者，这些品种原有主业存在比较扎实的安全边际，其新进入的领域则需要逐步验证和证实，一旦证实成功市值空间将会打开。此外，本基金一直在光伏领域进行了重点配置，其中包括我们认为供需格局比较好的高纯石英砂，行业增速最快的环节微逆等。新的技术路径我们认为未来topcon和hit应该会并存，短期看topcon已经在下游用户招标上开始放量，业绩今年已经开始落地。在医药领域本基金主要配置了HPV疫苗、中药、医美和医疗服务等。大众消费领域主要围绕白酒啤酒以及其他消费品做了布局。

从今年以来基金净值的波动看，一季度经历了比较大的回撤，这个是需要我进行再次反思的地方。个人的力量无法对抗市场短期的波动，我们始终在严格的审视自己的组合的架构以及所选择个股未来到底能不能走出来。但是同时我本人也需要进一步完善投资框架，尤其是把宏观波动融入到组合管理中来。

管理人对宏观经济、证券市场及行业走势的简要展望

展望下半年，我们认为再度爆发系统性风险的机会偏小，我们对经济复苏和复产复工的前景更加看好。三季度看汽车零部件较之二季度基本面环比向上的趋势比较确定，一方面来自产能利用率的大幅度提升，另一方面来自于大宗商品价格回落带来的中游制造业盈利能力的提升。另外光伏板我们持续看好，尤其是看好今年招标落地比较多的topcon技术路线，同时我们认为石英砂的供应在未来几年仍然是偏紧的格局，无论是国内的新进入者还是海外的扩产都有本身的局限性。不受技术路径干扰的储能逆变器环节、带材以及银浆等也都非常值得关注。此外消费复苏的前景值得期待，前期受到疫情散发干扰因素比较多，我们等待基本面改善的积极信号出现。最后是计算机板块目前资金处于非常低配的位置，我们看好数据安全领域即将跨越从0~1的过程，这是一个蓝海市场，暂时看不到天花板，容易诞生大市值公司，我们只需要付出一点耐心即可。同时我们等待相关招标启动后给半导体和计算机软硬件公司带来业绩边际改善的机会。

综上：本基金配置的方向始终围绕“医药+消费+科技”的配置思路，不断优化组合的品种，逐步增强组合持仓的阿尔法属性，通过长周期持有来对抗短期市场的波动。

Ref

http://www.hsfund.com/upload/20220831/20220831094947470.doc

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A Review of Sri Lanka’s Difficulty

The pandemic damaged the international trading business. Sri Lanka is for its Tea (Ceylon), which accounts for about 10% of its total export, and textile and fabric products’ exports account for more than 40% of its total export. Export takes also a huge amount of total national income, though net export keeps negative over years. The country is highly vulnerable to changes in international business and policies. The Pandemic resulted in unprecedented damages to the whole economy. A brief path is shown in the following.

  1. Pandemic blocked Export. The conflict between Ukraine and Russia increased the commodity price, which was highly reliable for Sri Lanka. Therefore, export decreased by decreasing quantity and import increased by increasing price, so the gap enlarged.
  2. A falling down in Net Export made GDP decrease and Foreign Exchange Reserve Decrease.
  3. Travelling industry was also blocked. National income from travelling decreased from more than 4 billion dollar to about 0.5 billion dollar.
  4. Without enough Foreign Exchange Reserves, the FX rate became uncontrollable. LKR kept decreasing, and the government could not do a lot, because there is no space to buying back LKR.

In sum, the sources of national income is so simple that is easy to be affected by negative impulses.

In addition, changes in fiscal policy, tax cutting, in 2019 made the government unaffordable to government spending. The gov had to print money, which resulted in inflation and no real term increase. The fiscal policy negatively enhanced the difficulty of Sri Lanka.

What could individuals do in the recession.

Nothing!

After Annual Jackson Hole

The macroeconomy is significantly reflected by the Fed, the president of Fed, CB of each country, etc. The impacts on the economy are from two parts, one is the real policy implemented, the other is the sentiments (including the expectation of policy implementation.

In the most recently Jackson Hole ended two days ago, on Friday last week 26th Aug, Powell, who is the chair of Fed, showed his forceful attitude toward inflations. His speech disclosed that inflation is still in a high level, and not a place to stop or pause.

Personal Consumption Expenditure data is about 6.3%. Although PCE is less than in March, it’s still in a very high level.

The market reacted to the speech in Jackson Hole by a significant decrease, and also Bitcoin price, as a leading factor of market sentiment, dropped about 5% to less than 2k dollar. The market would definitely have reaction based on expectation. Personally, I am not optimistic toward the world Econ. Since the beginning of 2020, helicopter drops resulted in the unprecedented growth in the US market, the QT right now would force the market go back to the beginning adjusted with fundamental growth. Let’s see what would happen in the following months.

Powell insisted that the Fed will keep the 2% inflation target, coz high inflation rate would be harmful especially to the middle class and the poor. Therefore, he stated the Fed would keep QT and rise interest rate, and another 75 basis point increase in interest rate could possibly happens depending on the macro and statistical data.

My idea is coincidentally compatible with Powell’s. Although the market has foreseen the turning point of the inflation, the inflation rate is still in an extreme high level.

The market seemingly is pricing in the expectation that inflation would be about 4% by the end of this year. `Investing in Energy and Metal Commodity might still be a good choice.

China is facing a completely different problem. Low demands and high savings damage the economic growth, and the gov still choose to stimulate the Econ through the Real Estate, which is an ineffective way in my view. Chinese gov is lower the the long-term LPR, in order to rise mortgage loan and long-term investment loan, which could boost the econ growth in long term. However, the contradiction of monetary policy between US and CN is extracting the magnitude of our monetary policy. Starting to figure out a way to boost demand and keep developing high-barrier high tech industry seems a better path.

近期经济观察

近一个月前的中概股退市风波在周五8月26日有了最新的进展，中美双方达成协议。中方愿意提供协助对中概股进行审计，前提是需要通过中方监管部门获得审计底稿等文件，且审计底稿被要求存放在香港。

总而言之，中概股的退市风险得以一定的缓解。但是：

  1. 显而易见的是，向美方提供的审计底稿中仍不可能存在过多敏感数据，参考滴滴美股的情况，敏感数据涉及国家主权信息安全问题。
  2. 退市风险虽然有所降低，但是基本面风险仍在。所谓基本面风险存在于几个方面：预期年底疫情政策放开会带来市场向好，但是 1. 大宏观角度国内经济情况并未得到好转。监管和上级仍在通过刺激房地产市场，刺激房子需求拉动整条庞大的房地产相关产业链发展，而刺激经济。此举在我看来并不健康。我国目前的人口结构决定了对房地产需求的长期下降，一线城市核心地段尚有需求，但其他城市不乐观，即使政策放宽可以进行一地一政，但是也并不能改变整体人口下降带来的房地产需求降低。刺激房地产显然不是长久之计，房地产相关放宽的政策出台让我愈加堪忧国内经济发展是否可持续。（人口和房地产问题会在后续blog中讨论）。2. 对互联网企业监管尚宽松，预期未来收紧（时间可能较长）。互联网企业仍依靠市场壁垒处于垄断低位，国内前段时间鼓吹的平台经济帮助互联网企业榨干消费者利益。美国前些时间出台的 抗通胀法案 及 The American Innovation and Choice Online Act 已经出台，对高科技公司 prohibit dominant tech platform 的效果会逐渐体现。我国相关立法大概率会借鉴，只是时间问题。相关法律的出台定会再次削减中概股企业利润。

中美关系，包括现在的去全球化趋势本质上是霸权问题。所谓体制的矛盾，和自由的矛盾，本质上也便只是噱头，中美矛盾的核心还是在于中方的经济发展速度给美国的国际地位带来了一定的威胁。

但是我国由于历史累计问题，尚有漫长的路要走。截至2021年7亿人月收入不足2000元；截至2019年，本科以上学历人占4%+，虽然教育degree并不能决定人的水平，尤其是通过高考选拔的教育体系背景下。但是文化及资本累计的基本背景使得贫富差距难以在短时间解决。那么高收入吸引高端人才就业于国内的模式就难以在我国进行（贫富差距过大会带来社会稳定问题 Core Consideration）。综上，在人口红利退去的时代，经济发展需要人才及创新技术支撑，我国吸引力待商榷，未来经济发展难。