Category: 近期经济观察

近期经济观察

After QE

Why QE ?

By QE, the Fed increased the money supply to stimulate the aggregate demand in 2020 and 2021.

$$ Y=C+I+G+NX $$

By QE, more money were dumped into the economy. Two mainly used methods are (1) helicopter drops, and (2) banks/firms repo and CB reverse repo.

What happens after QE ?

  • 1. Individuals got the more money in hands (mainly from Helicopter Drops in 2020) — Consumption increased. In the U.S., people who had SSN and were taxed a year before a certain time point were assured an opportunity of helicopter drops. Those money were highly likely ( and it really is) to transform to real demands in the market, because of the consumption habit in the U.S.

The Fed printed extra money and dumped into the economy. People spent those extra money to buy goods and service. Less Goods and Services were produced domestically in the U.S., while most of them were imported from Mexico, India, Russia, China, Mideast, etc. That is what I discussed before. The U.S. printed money (, which are worthless), and use “nothing” to reap goods and services from all over the world.

The above is one fact. Another is that there are still too much of money in the economy. Too much money chased too little goods. Like Milton Fridman said “Inflation is nothing but a monetary phenomenon”. There were no enough outputs (aggregate supply) to meet the increase in aggregate demand resulted from QE, then inflation surged.

  • 2. Increase in supply of money dragged the interest rate down and thus reduced the financial cost for firms. Investment increased. This case is a bit different. In China, the CB conducted also QE to stimulate the economy especially in the current situation. However, the CB’s conduction is mainly through the Banking System. In this case, money are mainly poured into firms through loans not to individuals. Individuals are hardly able to get low-cost money because on the one hand them may not have enough pledges, and on the other hand people are fear to invest in the real estate, coz the real estate bubbles are in the edge of collapse although the gov is trying to keep the mkt stable.

Pros and Cons are there. Advantages are (1) firms that got the low-cost money are most likely state owned firms. In this case, there are “relative high probability” of safety. (2) firms encounter low financial cost and could have direct impact on infrastructures. Disadvantages are also that (1) money could not be directly given to individuals, no real happiness or utility increase for those family. Family based businesses are still suffering the plunges in demands and undergo bankruptcy. (2) too much money chase too little high-quality assets that can have potential positive expected return or payoffs. Money circulates in the economy, and costs circulates as well to increase. On the one hand there is low efficiency, on the other hand extra money does not contribute to stimulate the economy. Financial System discoodinates.

近期经济观察 – FX rate

USD keeps appreciated after the release of interest rate increase by FOMC on Wednesday last week. The serious attitude from the Fed made the markets adjust their expectation for the interest rate level at the end of this year to be around 4.00% – 4.50% (previous expectation is around 4%). The increase of expectation turned down the equity market in a large percentage.

FX rate becomes also dramatic. The most recent available US dollar index went to be 125 on 16th September 2022. The data after the FOMC will be released this week, and let’s see how the meeting affects the US dollar Index last week.

Clearly, the increase of the USD index is caused by the increase in the US interest rate. USD appreciated are due to not only investors are chasing higher interest rate gains in the US, but also the liquidity gap in USD.

In one of my previous study, I discussed that the Fed keeps QE and QT during the economic cycles to squeeze resources and capitals from all over the world. That results in the magic economic phenomenon in the US currently that high inflation from previous QE and helicopter drops, high interest rate from the Fed, and still very low level of unemployment rate.

  • Could the inflation and high interest rate continue? Maybe Yes.
  • Could the low unemployment rate continue? Maybe No.

China is facing a problem in the domestic market. The gov and CB are struggling with the domestic economy and the foreign exchange. The real estate market seems more vulnerable and more volatile so that CB scarifies the relatively constant FX target, to still hold a low level of interest rate to stimulate investment and domestic mkt.

However, we seem cannot get an obvious react in the short run, the fundamentals still have none improvement. The non-optimistic economic environment reinforces the depreciation of CNY, as I discussed in previous blogs that the growth and prosperity of an economy is another important aspect affecting the FX rate.

Based on above illustrations, I may expect that USD would keep appreciating. Also, the appreciation seems won’t stop if there is not a clear indication of changes in the Fed’s Policy. However, USD appreciation drives capital flowing to the US market, and that is clearly not what every sovereign countries want, because the capital accumulation is moving the US. How could the progress stop? What can we do?

近期经济观察

近一个月前的中概股退市风波在周五8月26日有了最新的进展，中美双方达成协议。中方愿意提供协助对中概股进行审计，前提是需要通过中方监管部门获得审计底稿等文件，且审计底稿被要求存放在香港。

总而言之，中概股的退市风险得以一定的缓解。但是：

  1. 显而易见的是，向美方提供的审计底稿中仍不可能存在过多敏感数据，参考滴滴美股的情况，敏感数据涉及国家主权信息安全问题。
  2. 退市风险虽然有所降低，但是基本面风险仍在。所谓基本面风险存在于几个方面：预期年底疫情政策放开会带来市场向好，但是 1. 大宏观角度国内经济情况并未得到好转。监管和上级仍在通过刺激房地产市场，刺激房子需求拉动整条庞大的房地产相关产业链发展，而刺激经济。此举在我看来并不健康。我国目前的人口结构决定了对房地产需求的长期下降，一线城市核心地段尚有需求，但其他城市不乐观，即使政策放宽可以进行一地一政，但是也并不能改变整体人口下降带来的房地产需求降低。刺激房地产显然不是长久之计，房地产相关放宽的政策出台让我愈加堪忧国内经济发展是否可持续。（人口和房地产问题会在后续blog中讨论）。2. 对互联网企业监管尚宽松，预期未来收紧（时间可能较长）。互联网企业仍依靠市场壁垒处于垄断低位，国内前段时间鼓吹的平台经济帮助互联网企业榨干消费者利益。美国前些时间出台的 抗通胀法案 及 The American Innovation and Choice Online Act 已经出台，对高科技公司 prohibit dominant tech platform 的效果会逐渐体现。我国相关立法大概率会借鉴，只是时间问题。相关法律的出台定会再次削减中概股企业利润。

中美关系，包括现在的去全球化趋势本质上是霸权问题。所谓体制的矛盾，和自由的矛盾，本质上也便只是噱头，中美矛盾的核心还是在于中方的经济发展速度给美国的国际地位带来了一定的威胁。

但是我国由于历史累计问题，尚有漫长的路要走。截至2021年7亿人月收入不足2000元；截至2019年，本科以上学历人占4%+，虽然教育degree并不能决定人的水平，尤其是通过高考选拔的教育体系背景下。但是文化及资本累计的基本背景使得贫富差距难以在短时间解决。那么高收入吸引高端人才就业于国内的模式就难以在我国进行（贫富差距过大会带来社会稳定问题 Core Consideration）。综上，在人口红利退去的时代，经济发展需要人才及创新技术支撑，我国吸引力待商榷，未来经济发展难。

近期经济观察

Global Market

The world economy has changed a lot since March when the Fed start to control the Inflation rate by increasing the federal fund rate, 4 times already.

The Global Market: The 4th FOMC meeting ended with a 75 bp FFR increase.

The disclosure of several giant firms’ interim statements helped recover the confidence in the US market. Powell states that the economy is not in a recession, and inflation did decrease to a certain extent, so the tight monetary policy did achieve a bit. The US market is at a high FFR rate level already, and the Inflation data start to go down, with the downward movement of crude oil prices. Therefore, the market started to expect a mild movement in the short future.

The foreign market underwent also some “magic” movement. Due to the hike in the US interest rate, money and capital flowed to the US market, appreciating the USD relative to other currencies. EURO went down to even close to one to one, w.r.t. USD. GBP and CNY depreciated to a large degree as well.

中国市场

此前提到，在Fed加息进程中，各国央行货币政策的独立性收到了压缩。与Fed背道而驰意味着，美国高利率会吸引capital/money向美国外流，从而使domestic country的资本被US榨取。

我国强外汇管制一定程度上削弱了Fed加息，对中国CB独立性的冲击。但是自2022年4月经济情况大幅衰弱，市场预期因上海疫情爆发达到极低点。当时我国CB为了刺激经济，降息放水，通过地方财政债务增加，为地方政府提杠杆（隐形&&||显性），以刺激我国经济。当时我国CB的操作明显与Fed背道而驰，在USD dominates的市场情况下，此番操作显然会导致资本外逃。因此我国CB的monetary policy空间有限。

8月中旬，7月份经济数据公布，其中包括社融数据。社融数据大幅低于预期，同比环比皆显著低。主要因我国CB的刺激政策在6月底经济预期反弹后逐渐退出。同时，各大金融机构半年指标周期结束，银行大幅放款的进程周期性结束。总的来说，7月数据显著低于预期是因为：原因一，社融数据于是6月底社融达到高点，银行向企业放款的能力达到一定极限，因此至9月均难以有显著改善（但11月/12月年底指标仍需达成，所以年底仍有数据增加的空间）；原因二，政策刺激退出。政策刺激的推出是为了保证1. 我国CB货币政策还有一定的空间，2. 防止市场bubble。

目前真实市场情况，小微企业及小微经营主体接连倒闭，CB带来的流动性仍然无法有效投入到民营企业中（央企国企的确显著获得了流动性支持）。经济内循环难以有效建立，主要因为aggregate demand难以得到刺激。昨日8.15，CB开始再次通过货币刺激市场流动性，开始降MLF。

Chinese Econ is running into trouble, a bit pessimistic. There seems a systematic and structural problem that low aggregate demands in the market.

Key Takeaway:

  • Aggregate demand behaviours are acyclical, affecting inflation, and thus the policy makers’ target.
  • Chinese Market move behind the expectation, or I would say in other ways. Prob 1: The market has been generating wrong expectations and not quickly adjusting. Prob 2: In a relatively stable market, Institutional Players herd to manipulate prices to a certain degree.
  • I guess the market has recognised that if there are no effectively systematical changes, the market won’t get better in the long run.
  • 双循环中，内循环仍不畅通，可能原因1.早年间供给侧改革并无法刺激消费者的消费观念；2.经济理论角度，收入及预期低，无法带来消费。进出口拉动国内经济。
  • 国内多重风险，经济，国际间关系，包括社会（政治人物社会发言张某等）等为社会稳定带来负面影响。

近期经济观察

李杨

  • 资产负债表分析：
  1. Phase 1: B/S缩水：经济下行，资产缩水，但是负债保持不变
  2. Phase2: 企业还债压力增大，企业期望最小化负债，减少融资成本，因此变卖资产还债
  3. Phase3: 经济保持低迷，企业变卖资产导致资产价格进一步降低，企业无生产能力（资产减少）动力（需求低迷，生产导致库存增加）。因此对debt需求减少。 但是此阶段，央行出售，希望通过货币政策条款市场热度，降低利率，释放流动性。政策传导至银行：银行放debt，企业不借debt，宽货币紧信用。
  • 通过Phase123，导致了危机中市场的周期。1. 企业先有反应，B/S缩表。2. 央行放水。3. 银行放debt，企业不借debt ==>市场底部形成（见最后一个heading）。4. 最后市场缓和（经济向好发展的是否需要决定性技术发展支撑？还是仅通过财政货币即可帮助。）
  • 面对危机，日本近30年的对策（日本模式尚可，保持经济未崩溃，但经济整体热度不高）：
  1. 长期政府赤字，债务高企
  2. 大规模基建，政府投资（大多为地方政府投资，不同于我国，地方政府财政收入堪忧。因为经济下行税收减少，地产亦处于艰难阶段，土地转让金收入低。地方政府举步维艰。
  3. 货币政策长期保持低利率
  • 中国政策 （2008年4万亿刺激计划，实际不足4万亿，而是2年间同花1.2万亿）
  • 尚有政策发力空间。但是货币政策效果不显著，见Phase3，且内循环建立困难，需求无法顺畅。因此需要财政政策走向前台，需要有类似4万亿的计划，态度，及安排。（坚定的态度可以参考transparent monetary policy对市场预期的作用）
  • 我国进出口结构失衡，随净出口，但是净出口大都向美国，对欧洲等国家为净进口

大国博弈对我国的影响（阎学通 清华国际关系研究院院长）

  • 竞争者谁？
  1. 两个竞争者： 中美 （两极格局）。格局指国际关系的结构
  2. 但中美之间实力差距还很大，中国在向美国突破（甲级和乙级）
  3. 对美国而言，俄罗斯不再是主要竞争者，而向叙利亚伊朗等是主要战争威胁，唯一的竞争者是中国。
  • 竞争什么？
  1. 竞争权力（资源）
  2. 竞争领域：地缘+网络。地缘战略：俄罗斯是优势。但是网络战略：俄罗斯是劣势（受欧美网络舆论等主导）。最终总结出优势：数字技术竞争才能带来优势，比较优势成本优势覆盖面扩大等。P.S. 俄乌战争的胜负对国际格局没有大影响，因为世界主要竞争者是中美，其双方战争不能颠覆中美关系。竞争规则：不进行打击（网络竞争）。若不进行打击（不直接导致死人），竞争者即可以进行网络竞争 – 规则更新（数字时代大国战略规则）。
  • 竞争的战略？
  1. 美国合作，中国自主（独立产业链系统，内循环，统一大市场）。因为数字经济的核心是消费，要建立国内市场机制。数字经济依托消费，没有市场消费，就无法增长
  2. 竞争的路径：数字技术创新 – 靠人才。不止吸引华人，也要吸引有创新能力的外国人。P.S. 此条涉及到第一点，美国通过合作吸纳世界人才，中国需要想办法吸引or发掘人才。
  3. 竞争手段：美国：俱乐部模式。中国：双循环模式。P.S. 美国继续开放市场吸纳世界人才，中国搞内循环建立内部市场
  • De-Globalisation

De-Globalisation趋势形成。国际社会对我国的影响将会越来越弱。

  • 目前中美关系恶化到了比72年还糟（72年甚至无中美外交）的情况。72年后中美媒体不再点名批评对方领导人，但是自特朗普上台后再次开始对对方领导人言语攻击，同时老百姓也开始言语攻击。

陈果

  • 一二季度疫情冲击消费下滑，企业库存提升，因此企业投资减少信贷减少，降价甩货去库存，导致企业利润减少。（偏中上游需要有高库存的企业）
  • 总体经济有所恢复，但是具体恢复情况需要二季度（半年）经济数据出台。市场大概率已反映了复工预期，但是并没有经济向好预期，因此市场大概率保持震荡。
  • 宏观流动性偏宽松，货币政策发力。P.S. 但货币政策发力效果不足预期，财政需出手
  • 北向资金开始回流，同比显著弱，预期外资对市场影响偏小。
  • 成长牛的微观基础在于存量腾挪
  • 看涨1. 中期消费，由供给支撑（锂、煤炭、石油石化）而非需求支出。2. 汽车中长期看涨。3. 数字经济。

市场底部判断

purely基于历史数据：万得全A 跌至 M2的1/563

万得全A代表A股加权平均，M2代表市场流动性

Ref: https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/O4GDaUbqSGYwAseQnsNC8A

对近期经济金融形势的观察与研判

中国货币政策总体上具有自主性

首先分享下我对全球长期国债利率、各国汇率、主要权益市场指数的观察，并重点分析我国金融市场在过去几个月的表现。

近期美元一篮子指数大幅上升，美国十年期国债利率一度突破3%，涨幅非常大，在此背景下，德国、法国、意大利十年期国债利率也显著上升。其中意大利涨幅最大，其次是法国，德国也从负利率上行到接近1%的利率水平。日本目前基本没有通货膨胀压力，央行货币政策也没有紧缩的苗头或倾向，但日本十年期国债利率上升幅度超过20BP，从零利率或负利率上涨到0.25%-0.3%的利率水平。相应地，欧元对美元明显贬值，但日元对美元贬值的幅度显著更大。

从全球主要市场来看，欧洲、日本的经济周期与美国很不同步，特别是日本与美国经济周期的差别更大。同时，日元的自由浮动和大幅贬值也给本国金融市场提供了缓冲和保护，尽管日本央行对长期国债利率也做出了强有力的承诺，但日本长期国债利率仍上升了20-30BP。

回到中国，近期人民币对美元汇率从6.3左右开始贬值，最低点甚至接近6.8，应该说也出现了短时间较为剧烈的贬值。考虑到中美经济周期和货币政策取向的差异，这并不意外。但值得注意的是，近期中国长期国债利率大体稳定，中短端利率，包括七天回购利率、一年期国债利率的下行趋势则非常明显。需要进一步考虑的因素是地缘政治风险导致资本从中国债券市场流出的冲击。俄乌冲突后的一段时间内，中国债券市场出现了一定程度的外资净流出现象。在其他因素不变的条件下，这无疑倾向于抬高中国的利率水平。换句话说，如果没有俄乌冲突，尽管发生了美联储加息和人民币贬值，中国债券市场利率的下行应该更明显。

从全球来看，人民币贬值在一定程度上受到美联储加息的影响。但从国债利率走向来看，相比日本、德国、法国和意大利，中国国债利率的变化与自身经济变化的联系可能更加紧密。

对此，一个重要的解释是，中国金融市场开放度还不太高，再加上人民币汇率自由浮动所提供的保护，货币政策具有较强的自主性，因此在全球主要市场利率上行时，人民币国债利率不仅没有随美元利率上升，而且短端利率还出现明显下沉。

这也进一步反映出，本轮人民币贬值在一定程度上反映着中国经济景气下行的影响。

疫情反复导致储蓄率上，升居民投资倾向趋于保守

其次是对疫情下储蓄率变化及储蓄流向的观察。

2020年和2022年两次疫情均带来居民储蓄率的大幅上升。其中一部分来自非意愿储蓄的上升，因为疫情会阻碍消费；另一部分则来自预防性储蓄的上升，这体现出居民对不确定性的担忧。

2020年居民部门户调储蓄率上升最高一度达到5%-6%，2022年这一数值迄今可能接近3%。值得关注的是，储蓄率上升后，多余的储蓄资金会流向何处？

2020年疫情暴发，市场经历了一个月的短暂恐慌后，储蓄主要流向了股票和房地产市场，直接结果就是股票在短暂下跌后，快速、大幅地上升；房地产市场也出现购销两旺的局面，房价显著上升。

迄今为止，本轮疫情下的储蓄似乎有三个主要流向：一是储蓄存款，表现为M2的快速上涨。二是固定收益和固定收益+市场。因此，近期在基本面没有明显变化的情况下，信用利差开始缩小，信用债涨幅较好，各等级市场的信用风险溢价都在下行。三是减少负债。居民部门将储蓄用于削减自身负债，通过提前偿还、加大住房贷款偿还量等方式，降低自身杠杆。

这种情况与2020年形成了鲜明对比，反映出居民对就业安全和未来收入的信心出现动摇。

提振市场主体长期信心，保持政策预期的稳定性

最后是对中国权益市场的观察。

从全球权益市场指数来看，目前纳斯达克指数跌幅超过30%，标普指数跌幅超过20%，中国创业板、沪深300指数的跌幅与之相比大体接近。但是如果把中国股票市场放在自身历史和全球金融市场的大背景下，有两个问题十分突出。

第一，中国股市在货币政策和流动性没有明显收紧的背景下，股指下跌幅度较显著，这在过去20多年的历史中尚属首次。第二，从全球市场来看，中国股指跌幅比日股、欧股更大。但美日欧显然都受到联储货币紧缩的影响，其债券市场也在下跌。而中国的债券市场则不然，市场的下跌有更深层次的原因。

实际上，从2月份开始我们都已经知道，用自由现金流贴现法的分析框架来观察，中国股市下跌的原因并非来自模型的分母端，即利率等因素，也不是来自于对短期盈利变化的担忧，尽管这有一些影响。市场的主要担忧来自于分子端，对长期现金流增长的可得性和确定性的预期转弱。

一个可能的解释是，经过连续几年的上涨，市场部分板块估值过高，透支了未来的盈利增长，在没有明显诱因的条件下，股价由于自身重力的作用在某个时刻下跌。一个竞争性的解释是，由于宏观政策和监管环境的变化，部分行业未来的可见度下降，增长潜力和确定性都出现新的变数。我们相信这两种解释可能并行不悖，后一因素的解释对市场总体上来说也许更重要一些。

立足底线思维，警惕金融市场出现“完美风暴”风险

立足底线思维警惕金融市场出现“完美

在此背景下，对当前形势做两点研判。

第一，3月中旬到4月底，面对内外错综复杂的经济金融形势，决策层释放了了一系列强有力的政策信号，具体政策层面也开始出现调整迹象。从交易的角度来看，市场似乎正在稳定下来。市场稳定的含义指的是，市场也许已完全吸收、甚至过度吸收了上述负面影响因素；与此同时，市场正试探性地对政府正在采取的积极政策进行评估和定价。

也就是说，至少从股票市场来看，市场正边际好转，并正在尝试消化吸收正向因素。不过，政策的落地情况等仍然牵制着市场的方向，也需要警惕出现预期外的因素导致市场可能再次剧烈调整。

第二，立足于底线思维来考虑：由于中外周期走向的背离，在极端情况下，一方面美元快速升值使得人民币承压；另一方面，经济下行或许会导致国内出现超预期的风险暴露，引发资本外流。如果这两种情况同时发生，可能会导致股债汇全面下跌，相互激荡，并进一步传染到信贷和房地产市场，从而形成“完美风暴”。这种可能性尽管不高，但无疑值得警惕。

原作者：高善文

近期经济观察 – U.S. Trade Deficits

The Fed increase the federal fund rate and resulting in an increase in the nominal interest rate in the U.S. market. The U.S. dollar becomes more and more attractive to global investors due to mainly two reasons. One is that the U.S. dollar behaves as the safety currency (detailed reasonings are shown in the previous posts), and the other is that the increase in the interest rate attracts money from other countries to be invested in the U.S. market.

U.S. dollar gets appreciated for the above two reasons, and thus the U.S. faces an increase in trade deficits. For the aggregate U.S. market, imports are way more than exports. However, those extra imports are clearly paid through the U.S. dollar or exchanged with other currencies (but shared with the same logic as paid with USD). And that extra amount of US dollar is from the helicopter drops and QE of the Fed. That means the extra US dollars back with nothing, but are used to purchase/import assets from other countries. Right! it do not need to be backed by other in the current economy (Also, MMT advocates even crazy).

I am telling that those facts are equivalent to that the U.S. is getting net imports from other countries for free. Also, the U.S. is sending its “worthless” extra currency to others, exchanging goods and services. Productions are not working in a good way for those exporting countries in the battle with the pandemic.

Due to the fact that the US dollar is the safest currency, the extra printed amount is absorbed by other countries that get net exports to the U.S. Those other countries export goods and services and import back inflation. There are also countries that conduct QE in a similar rhythm to the U.S. would face even higher inflation intuitively, because the US dollar is the safest one and the only one linked with crude oil and commonly accepted in commodities trading but other countries’ currencies are not.

Fed放水，释放美元供给，按quantity theory of money的说法：people hoard money instead of spending them。但是现实中， hyperinflation comes later than the theory tells。原因可以部分可以参考MMT。同时美元作为 1. 最safest的货币，且 2. 与石油挂钩，并未大宗商品交易的主要媒介，仍然有很大的需求。导致虽然市场上美元供给增加了，但是因为紧张的国际关系、俄乌战争、de-globalisation、pandemic的影响，以及上述两条原因，市场上对美元仍有大量需求，导致inflation没有立刻到来。

但是，大量printed US dollar实际上并没有real goods\ productions or services的支持，很多出口商品的他国公司获得美元（or other currencies, but similar as holding USD）交付（美国import，其他国家export），这里的美元只能用来交易且为extra美元。相当于是Fed pays nothing印的钱，买了real goods。这些出口国家失去了商品、产能、and factors，得到了USD，相当于得到了nothing but inflation，由美国extra money printed 带来的 inflation。

同时一些国家与美国同步QE印钱，执行类似的monetary policy降息，为了保证foreign exchange相对稳定。但是这些国家的货币并非如同USD一样highly demanded。所以这些国家的货币难以与美元继续peg，脱钩后会引入even higher inflation。

Implications：自主货币政策（而非peg）的重要性；外汇储备以应对紧急 外汇、国际经济（如利差倒挂）情况的重要性；以及外汇市场中globalisation情况变化下的monetary policy的重要性。

近期经济观察

中国央行降息 松货币 宽信用 为刺激国内经济，增加信贷，盘活经济，实现年增长目标。

美联储升息 为应对 通胀风险。

双方的双向操作使得中美利差缩小。

US interest rate is relatively more attractive to global investors than CNY. However, in the exchange market, CNY appreciates and the USD depreciates. How does that happen? Why investments do not flow to the U.S. market?

In the following, we consider why money does not escape from the Chinese market. –

1. Regulation

CNY has continued appreciating since 2018, while the spread between CNY and USD converging. That is largely because of the regulation. – 资本管制、外汇市场干预、风险因素

In this case, the real demand and supply of China in the EX market does not flow with the change of interest rate spread.

2. Risks

Investors consider not only profits but also risks. For the profit part, which is about the spread convergence, it does make sense that the US dollar should appreciate. However, for the risk part, we normally under-evaluate the risk of the U.S. market.

Although FRED increases the interest rate, that policy aims to battle hyperinflation ( face crisis) instead of actively controlling unexpected growth (contractionary policy). Therefore, the policy of increase in interest rate would more likely to end up with higher risks, which are investors does not want to face.

The Chinese policy of decreasing interest rates might also aim to face the crisis. That is hard to evaluate which part risks dominate.

Other Facts

U.S. aims to 1. battle with inflation 2. attract money to flow from EU and Emerging market back into U.S. market.

China is facing severe international conditions as well. See news and reports e.g. economists 6th March.

近期经济观察

  • 第十三届全国人大常委会将于2022年3月5日召开。
  • 全国政协十三届五次会议将于2022年3月4日召开。

人大会议《政府工作报告》包括主要四个部分。

  • 1. 2021回顾
  • 2. 社会经济发展总需求

Estimate: 稳中求进+高质量发展

  • 3. 今年经济社会发展总目标：
  1. 5.5%经济增长。按域不同
  2. 增加城镇就业，减少失业率
  3. 通胀目标3%
  4. 进出口平稳，国际收支平稳
  5. 居民收入增长 与 经济增长基本同步
  6. 粮食产量1.3万亿斤
  • 4. 今年工作重点:
  1. 加大宏观政策力度： 财政政策货币政策协调乏力。减税，扩大支出，基建投资，遏制隐形债务，防范金融风险，引导金融机构对小微企业、科技创新、绿色发展的支持。
  2. 深化改革：要素市场化、全面股票注册制、国企改革、电网铁路等自然垄断行业改革，强化反垄断。（牌照行业反垄断）
  3. 创新驱动：支持创新，为此增加基础研究投入、加大税收优惠政策、扩大设备投资、发展数字经济。
  4. 扩大内需和区域协调与新型城镇化：扩大家电汽车等大宗消费，扩大有效投资。新能源+大宗商品。住房改革etc
  5. 乡村振兴：粮食生产+粮食供给+高标准农田建设
  6. 扩大开放：对出口企业政策支持，减税降费。扩大开放，有效利用外资，共建一带一路。
  7. 绿色低碳：发展新能源环保产业。
  8. 防范化解金融风险
  9. 改善民生：医疗、教育、养老、就业。

财政

21年财政收入同比增加，财政支出同比保持相对稳定。

专项债投入稳步增长。应对农林、生态、社会事业、交通基建、城镇冷链等。

土地出让金下行风险 – 房地产市场不景气

货币

面临问题：需求收缩、供给冲击、预期转弱。1. 疫情冲击、需求减弱；2. 房地产投资负增及相关产业链不景气；3. 出口压力 国际压力。

宽信用：资金刺激小微企业、个体商户、农业经营主体

避免陷入流动性陷阱。避免陷入负利率时代，利率调整将失去刺激经济的作用。增加金融风险。不可盲目对标国外负利率政策，要有长远考虑。

关注海外加息压力及汇率压力。目前Fed紧缩，us利率提升，目前国际收支健康。但fed政策继续加大可能会吸引国际资本回流美国，同时影响中国市场。

全国商品涨价、能源装甲、劳动力短缺、供应链问题、通胀压力持续。

我国双循环仍大量依赖出口，若出口增速回落会对国内经济复苏产生巨大压力。

近期经济情况 Omicron

  • 当前报道表面Omicron杀伤力较弱。结合其传染力强的特点，有可能帮助全球实现群体免疫。由此US市场普遍对pandemic的预期减弱。
  • 目前Fed政策急转向收紧流动性，减少印钞并加息。市场普遍认为是因为目前美国高通胀。CPI创31年新高（此前是oil crisis）。但是potential reason是，美国就业市场以近饱和，近full employment。继续宽流动性刺激就业会导致hyperinflation。

可以看到labour force participant rate underwent a continuous decrease since 2000. It dropped to the bottom during the pandemic in April 2020 and recovered with the stimulation of public sectors’ policy. However, if taking data before the pandemic, and estimating the decreasing trend (i.e. regress labour force participation rate on time), the forecasted value till current period is about the current value.

That finding implies the labour market has already recovered to the pre-pandemic level. The low level of the labour force participation rate might be that older people do not want to participate in the labour market again and waiting to retire. This implication is also backed by the fact of relatively low level of the unemployment rate.

P.S. there is a negative correlation between the unemployment rate and the federal fund rate. The federal fund rate hikes while the unemployment rate decreases. I would consider that Fed conducts contractionary monetary policy while the economy is close to full employment, controlling the economy not to be overheated.

Based on that, we can find that the Fed calling back the liquidity by increasing interest rate is reasonable. Predict that the Fed would hold a higher federal fund rate, decreasing liquidity and absorbing capital flowing back to the U.S.

Let’s think TAPER and federal fund rate increase together. With an increase in the interest rate in the U.S., money would pour into the U.S. pursuing higher interest rate payments. People would therefore sell assets from other countries for money, resulting in a decrease in the capital market.